655
FXUS63 KFGF 050723
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
223 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Organized thunderstorms are likely Monday through Tuesday,
  with a conditional threat of strong to severe thunderstorms
  south of I-94 Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

06z surface analysis indicates a surface high over the Devils
Lake Basin with an attendant surface ridge stretching down
through Minnesota. This has created near calm winds at the
surface. Dew point depressions across the area are between 2 and
6 degrees and there doesn`t appear to be a whole lot of
spatial patterns to it. For this reason, patchy fog is likely to
develop in some spots overnight tonight, but the probability for
widespread fog is very low. For today, dry conditions are
expected with mostly clear skies. Afternoon cumulus clouds may
form, but showers are very unlikely to develop today.

Attention then turns to a very strong extratropical cyclone that
will develop over the central and northern plains. With strong
synoptic scale forcing due to strong CVA, there is high
confidence in a broad swath of convection. MUCAPE values in
advance of this system range in the 250-750 J/kg range, so
thunderstorms are likely to develop, especially along the
surface theta-e front. With shear very good thanks to strong
low-level and mid-level flow, a brief window of strong to severe
storms may develop along a thin surface warm sector. Near
surface backing in advance of the surface front will allow for a
small area of enhanced streamwise vorticity (although this
would end up being highly dependent on storm motion, which is
very uncertain due to frontal orientation). This would create an
environment conducive for low-topped supercells, which if it
were to arise would bring the threat for damaging wind gusts
(exceeding 58 mph) and tornadoes. A lot of this hinges on near
surface destabilization, which will be very difficult without
stronger differential temperature advection and diurnal heating.
Because of all of these uncertainties, the official SPC outlook
keeps us out of severe potential. This will be something to
monitor over the next day.

What is highly confident is widespread showers and thunderstorms
will impact the region Monday and Tuesday. The bulk of the
heavier rainfall rates will be tied to thunderstorms, primarily
south of Highway 200. Rainfall amounts of at least 0.10" are
expected, with the potential to cross 0.50" in some locations
with thunderstorms. The chances for rain continue through the
week before we see a pattern shift to drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period at all TAF
sites. Look for light and variable winds through the remainder
of the night, with increasing winds after sunrise Sunday. There
is a low chance for patchy fog early Sunday morning, primarily
for KDVL. Winds shift to the south through the mid morning
hours, then increase during the afternoon. A few gusts to near
25 knots are possible by late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Lynch