115
FXUS64 KFWD 031914
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
214 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

A Flood Watch is now in effect for eastern Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley. This watch will continue through Sunday morning as
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected.

The weather across North and Central Texas will remain fairly
active as a warm and humid airmass remains established atop our
region. As you step outdoors, the humid airmass remains evident
with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Early
morning convection across southern Oklahoma sent an outflow
boundary southward, meanwhile, ongoing storms across Central
Texas continue to push northwestward. These outflow boundaries
will likely be the focus for isolated convection across North
Texas this afternoon. Given a lack of strong flow, any convection
is likely to remain highly disorganized and fairly short-lived.
Nonetheless, lighting and gusty winds will remain possible with
any of the storms this afternoon.

Across eastern Central Texas, another remnant boundary continues
to be the focus for occasional bouts of heavy rain through the
rest of this afternoon. Considering the antecedent conditions, a
quick 1-2 inches of rain can lead to flash flooding.

Storm chances should dissipate around or shortly after sunset as
daytime heating comes to an end. This is when we`ll turn our
attention to the dryline across West Texas, where storms are once
again expected. Although the dryline will likely be about 100
miles west of our region, storm motion this evening will be to the
east with a few storms arriving to our western-most counties by
9-10pm. Given the storms will become increasingly displaced from
the source of lift, expect storms to gradually dissipate trough
the night. There is a low (~20%) chance of showers or storms
approaching the I-35 corridor closer to midnight. Storms would be
decaying, thus, the threat for severe storms would remain low.
Tonight, expect cloudy and above normal temperatures will lows
remaining in the mid to upper 60s areawide.

Our next rain chances will arrive tomorrow as a cold front moves
southward across our region. A shortwave trough will be migrating
eastward, likely firing off thunderstorms along the leading edge
of the front. At this time, the greatest rain chances will likely
be beyond sunset tomorrow, however, a few isolated showers and
storms cannot be ruled out between noon and sunset. Any storms
that do develop in the afternoon could contain small hail and
gusty winds. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with southerly winds continuing.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024/
Update:

An unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend, with
potential for showers and thunderstorms through Monday evening. Of
course, this will largely depend on a variety of factors - most
notably the exact placement of the frontal boundary and any
residual outflow boundaries from previous convective activity.
There will exist a low-end potential for severe weather, which
will need to be closely monitored over the next few days. The main
concerns regarding this include large hail, damaging winds, and
additional rounds of heavy rainfall which may lead to a
reemergence of flooding issues across Central Texas. Thankfully
there appears to be a brief period of relatively low rain chances
as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico, which
will help to limit most severe weather concerns through the week.
Along with this, continual southerly flow will allow our afternoon
highs to steadily creep into the mid 80s and low 90s across the
area. Overnight lows will be quite warm as well, lingering in the
low 70s. For more specific details, please refer to the previous
long term discussion down below and continue to check for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Night and Beyond/

The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas
Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the
frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday
afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for
scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually
moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front
acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater
rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20
Saturday.

Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall
event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest
a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this
stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient
instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near
the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday
afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will
provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity
into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional
development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas.
The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and
damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some
low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a
low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35
as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely
dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any
lingering outflow boundaries.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system
entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could
bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best
synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as
of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow
and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will
allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low
90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the
forecast over the next several days as we further refine the
details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low storm potential this afternoon. MVFR/IFR expected
once again tonight through tomorrow.

With the unsettled weather pattern continuing atop North and
Central Texas, there will be a renewed chance of isolated storms
within the D10 airspace this afternoon. Coverage will remain
minimal, but some impacts to aviation traffic will be possible.
Any storms that do develop will dissipate after sunset as south
winds persist.

The dryline, which will be across West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle, will once again fire off thunderstorms this afternoon.
Storms are expected to remain west of the D10 airspace, however,
any westward traffic may see impacts due to the afternoon and
evening convection.

Ceilings will be deteriorating overnight, with MVFR around
midnight, then IFR closer to 08Z. This trend is fairly similar
across Waco where a similar airmass will be in place. The sub-VFR
ceilings are expected to linger through tomorrow morning before
improvements begin in the afternoon.

Storm potential tomorrow afternoon remains too uncertain to
mention in the TAF. There is higher confidence in tomorrow night`s
convection, however, that is beyond this forecast cycle.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  80  68  79  69 /  20  20  70  70  20
Waco                68  80  68  79  68 /  20  40  60  60  20
Paris               64  79  65  76  66 /  20  40  60  80  20
Denton              66  79  66  79  67 /  20  20  70  70  20
McKinney            66  79  67  78  68 /  20  20  70  70  20
Dallas              68  80  68  79  69 /  20  20  70  70  20
Terrell             66  80  67  79  68 /  20  30  60  70  20
Corsicana           68  82  69  81  70 /  20  40  50  70  20
Temple              68  81  68  80  69 /  20  40  50  60  20
Mineral Wells       66  80  66  79  67 /  30  30  80  70  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162-
174-175.

&&

$$