793
FXUS64 KFWD 061839
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday afternoon/

An active start of the week for portions of the southern Plain
especially across Oklahoma and Kansas where there is a moderate
and high risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The threat for our area remains highly conditional, given the
fact that we`re still fairly capped (based on the latest ACARs
soundings). With a highly buoyant environment (2500-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE), IF storms are able to develop they will likely become
severe with very large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
While areas generally north of I-20 (especially near the Red
River) have the greatest threat for severe storms, we can`t rule
out the potential for a strong to marginally severe storm farther
south. We still think this is a low confidence/low coverage, but
potentially high impact event if storms develop. Most of the
activity should stay north of our area this evening and tonight
as the strong ascent associated with the cold front moves
eastward/southward, but the window to pay attention for our area
will be roughly between 3-10 pm. The best advice is to stay
weather aware and make sure to have multiple ways to receive
weather alerts in case a warning is issued.

The cold front should continue to push eastward overnight into
Tuesday but it will lose its push over our region as it gets
detached from the main upper level system. The main impact for us
will be a brief wind shift to the north Tuesday morning, but
winds will likely return to the south by the afternoon. Otherwise,
no additional rain is expected with clearing skies behind the
front into the afternoon. With the lack of any cool air advection
and clearing skies, afternoon highs on Tuesday will be warm and
likely reach the mid to upper 80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024/
/Wednesday through Sunday/

Abnormal, but sub-record heat will continue to build on Wednesday
as H850 temperature anomalies climb over North and Central Texas
amidst low level downslope flow. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s in combination with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
will yield maximum apparent temperatures nearing 100 degrees
across portions of Central Texas...particularly south of a
Palestine to Waco to Lampasas line. The broad upper low anchored
over the northern Plains will slowly eject into the Upper Midwest
Wednesday while west-southwesterly mid-level flow prevails across
the central CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough riding around the
base of the main upper low will swing eastward from the
central/southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley
Wednesday into Thursday inducing lee cyclogenesis over the
southern Rockies.

Strong low-level moisture transport ahead of the trailing
dryline/cold front will contribute to increasing buoyancy while
mid-level lapse rates steepen, resulting in MLCAPE in excess of
3500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along
these surface boundaries through the afternoon and evening as
large-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave overspreads
the region. The best storm chances will generally be along and
east of I-35/35W, which is currently projected to be the
approximate location of the dryline by the afternoon. With strong
instability and 35-45+ knots of deep-layer effective shear, any
thunderstorms that develop will likely be severe with large hail
and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Antecedent
conditions also remain very wet given the recent period of heavy
rainfall. This means runoff issues may rapidly re-emerge on
Wednesday (and potentially Thursday), especially wherever higher
convective rain rates occur.

After briefly stalling just south of I-20 Wednesday night, the
cold front will continue to sag southward into Central TX on
Thursday. Convective development will be possible ahead of the
boundary, however confidence is low in the exact location and
speed of the front. Additionally, storms may have to overcome some
capping so the coverage of convection is likely to be lower until
later in the afternoon. With this forecast update, PoPs have been
increased/expanded slightly across Central Texas Thursday
afternoon. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with
any storms that develop, though the better severe weather
potential will likely exist just beyond our forecast domain given
the projected FROPA timing.

The post-frontal airmass will be noticeably cooler with daytime
temperatures in the mid 70s by the weekend as a surface high
builds southward through the Plains. On Saturday, a large upper
low will drop across the western Great Lakes sending a strong cold
front plunging towards the Gulf coast. This is likely to bring
shower/storm chances back to the region as soon as Saturday night.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low chance for an isolated storm through this evening.
MVFR ceilings return tonight followed by a weak cold front
Tuesday morning.

Low clouds will continue to lift/scatter out this afternoon with
VFR cigs expected the rest of the day. A few showers and isolated
storms may still develop this afternoon and evening, but
confidence remains low (less than 10%) to introduce VCTS at this
time. The good news is that most of the latest high-res models
keep most of the isolated/scattered convection across East Texas.
Trends will be monitored and we will adjust the forecast as
needed.

Another round of MVFR stratus will spread northward tonight,
arriving at KACT around 06-07Z and the DFW Metroplex sites around
07-08Z. Conditions will improve Friday morning as a cold front
moves through the region. FROPA is expected to occur around 15Z,
but winds will shift back the south in the afternoon staying
light. Otherwise, breezy south winds around 15-20 kts will
continue the rest of the today and tonight.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  87  72  89  65 /  10   0   0  20  20
Waco                72  87  71  88  68 /  10   5   0  20  10
Paris               71  85  69  85  61 /  20   5   5  40  40
Denton              67  85  69  88  60 /  10   0   0  20  20
McKinney            71  87  70  87  63 /  20   0   5  20  30
Dallas              72  88  72  90  66 /  10   0   0  20  20
Terrell             73  86  70  86  64 /  10   0   5  30  30
Corsicana           73  86  73  88  69 /  10   0   0  20  20
Temple              71  87  71  89  69 /  10   5   0  10   5
Mineral Wells       63  86  69  89  61 /   5   0   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$