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000
FXUS63 KGID 152052
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
352 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms develop and move through the area tonight. A few
  storms are possible as early as 6pm, but the main timeframe is
  expected to be 10pm to 4am.

- Tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are all
  possible. And this threat continues well into the overnight.

- Additional rain and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday,
  especially across Nebraska, but the main severe risk will
  shift east of us.

- Turning cooler through the week and into the weekend, with off
  and on precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Returning moisture and diurnal heating ahead of an upper low has
pushed MLCAPE values as high as 3000J/kg in southwestern
portions of the area. Latest satellite shows cumulus development
stretching from near North Platte down to near Beloit.
This cumulus doesn`t seem to be developing quickly, and there
is still some uncertainty on when this will develop. The HRRR
keeps our entire area convection-free until almost midnight, but
the NAMnest shows convective development within the next 1-2
hours.

Regardless, the expectation is that this first round of
thunderstorms (wherever they develop) will be primarily a hail
threat with steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively limited
low-level shear.

Around sunset, increasing low level shear and helicity will lead
to increasing tornado threat, and better forcing arriving from
the west should allow for additional thunderstorms to develop
overhead or just to our southwest late this evening (after
10pm). This activity will then move through the area into the
late overnight, with continued threats for damaging hail, wind
and tornadoes. The tornado threat will likely be greatest along
the southern extent of the cluster/line.

Storms push to our east Tuesday morning, but additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the upper low moves
through the area. Instability will be much more limited on
Tuesday, so severe weather is unlikely.

Winds will turn to the northwest behind the low Tuesday evening
into the overnight, and gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected.

Another shortwave will bring us another chance for precipitation
Wednesday night into Thursday morning (along with a shot of
cooler air). This should be primarily rain (and some weak
thunderstorms), but a mix of rain/snow is possible Thursday
morning as surface temperatures fall into the 30s.

A upper low over Manitoba will keep us in a cooler pattern
into next weekend, with spotty precipitation chances each day.
Subfreezing temperatures appear likely Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Southeast winds continue to gust to 35kts through this
afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms should initially develop north of
GRI/EAR, followed by additional storms arriving from the
southwest later overnight. Some of these storms are expected to
be severe. The main timeframe for these storms is 5Z-11Z,
though exact timing remains a bit uncertain.

Winds turn southwesterly to westerly Tuesday morning, and
additional showers and a few thunderstorms return to the area
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels