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000
FXUS63 KGLD 142035
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect Monday for much of the Tri-State
  area.

- Low confidence in a threat for severe weather very late Monday
  afternoon into the evening generally along east of a Red
  Willow to Norton and Graham county line.

- Medium to high confidence in northwest winds gusting 40 to 65
  mph, possibly higher during the day Tuesday. Low confidence in
  blowing dust. Light beneficial rainfall is likely, mainly
  along and north of Interstate 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tonight...east to southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected.
Gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range will be possible for a few hours
either side of midnight. A generally clear sky is expected. However,
high clouds may approach the far southern zones toward sunrise. If
the NAM model is correct, we could have some stratus move into the
eastern and northeastern zones toward sunrise. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 30s/lower 40s across the western and
southwestern parts of the area to the lower 40s across the eastern
half of the area.

Monday-Monday night...at 500mb, a closed low pressure area is
forecast to reach Colorado`s Continental from the southwest by
the end of the day, continuing east and over the Tri-State area
during the night.

Presently, Currently, southeast to southwest winds gusting 35 to 45
mph are anticipated during the day. Locally developed blowing
dust/dust storm parameters of 0.5-1km wind speeds of at least 43kts
and steep 0-2km lapse rates are being met using the usually reliable
GFS model, favoring  a narrow corridor from Trenton and McCook to
Colby, Oakley and Leoti a few hours either side of 00z. The GEM
model, which also does well, remains just a bit lower on the needed
wind speeds but its axis of these winds is in line with the GFS.
Overnight, gusty southeast to southwest winds continue in the
evening before gradually veering to the southwest and west at
speeds of 10 to 20 mph with a few gusts in the 25 to 30 mph
range winds gradually switch to the northwest for most of the
area behind the developing surface low.

Regarding precipitation chances, there is a large dry slot being
advertised in the 850-500mb layer from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models
which doesnt support much if any showers/thunderstorms during the
day. If the NAM model verifies, the stratus over the east/northeast
in the morning continues through the day and would act as a
focus for shower/thunderstorm development. If the GFS verifies,
the entire area is dry slotted from the surface through 300mb.
So, things could go one of two ways. Presently, am confining any
thunderstorm development to locations generally east of Highway
25 around 00z which is in line with the latest SPC day 2
outlook. If thunderstorms can develop, they`ll be severe with
all modes of severe weather possible. Overnight, cant rule out a
few thunderstorms across Red Willow, Norton, Graham counties in
the evening. For the rest of the night, there will be 20%-30%
chances for precipitation across the far eastern and far western
zones with the rest of the area in a dry slot.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with low temperatures in the upper 30s to near 50.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...as the storm system lifts northeast toward
Omaha by the end of the day, strong northwest winds move in on the
backside of the low. Gusts in the 40 to 65 mph range are anticipated
with the strongest gusts west of Highway 25. If this trend
continues, High Wind Watch or Warning will be needed. Winds will
slowly decrease from southwest to northeast overnight as the
storm continues moving away from the area.

Wraparound showers and thunderstorm chances will be highest (60%-
80%) along and north of Interstate 70 with lower chances (30%-50%)
south during the day. Overnight, chances quickly decrease with 20%-
30% chances from Benkelman to Hill City north.

Solely based on our blowing dust/dust storm research findings,
there is a threat across far eastern Colorado in the morning,
along and immediately ahead of the wraparound precipitation.
During the afternoon, the threat continues east and southeast
into western Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska. However,
given the expected rainfall, this would likely muddy up the
forecast for blowing dust. Its possible that dust would race
ahead of precipitation shield and should that happen, produce a
rather elongated northeast to southwest corridor of dust with
local brownout conditions possible. For now, the mention of
blowing dust is confined to locations south of a line from Yuma
to Oakley where rainfall chances are lowest and threat for
blowing dust relatively highest.

High temperatures are anticipated to be in the lower 60s to middle
70s with low temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...the 500mb flow features near zonal flow
over the area with a low pressure system near the Canada/North
Dakota border. Shower and thunderstorm chances (20%-60%) increase
during the night as moisture increases from northwest to southeast.
High temperatures warm back into the 70s with low temperatures in
the lower 30s to around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Zonal to ever so slightly southwesterly flow aloft continues
Thursday and into the weekend, behind progression of the low
pressure system. Broad upper level troughing resides across the
northern CONUS with an upstream ridge building into the western
CONUS late in the work week into the weekend. At the surface, high
pressure nudges southward and an easterly component to the low level
winds will re-introduce off and on shower chances (generally 20-40%)
through the remainder of the period, with otherwise at least an
increase in cloud cover expected.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler during the latter
part of the week, with high temperatures around 20 degrees lower
Thursday (into the 50s) as compared to Wednesday and low
temperatures dipping back down towards/below the freezing mark.
Temperatures remain below normal (coolest on Saturday) before we
undergo a warming trend with upper level ridging working eastward
over the area. The cooler temperatures will also allow potential for
snow to mix in at times across western portions of the area, though
accumulation is not expected. QPF will be generally to around a few
hundredths up to around two tenths of an inch during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
northeast wind at taf issuance will veer to the east then
southeast through this afternoon with gusts up to 20kts or so.
Tonight, east-southeast winds of 11-15kts with some gusts are
expected. Monday morning, southeast winds gusting 25 to 30kts
are expected.

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
An easterly wind gusting up to 20kts at taf issuance will
continue through 22z, settling to around 11kts tonight. Monday
morning, southeast winds increase with gusts up to 35kts or so.
There will be a chance for stratus to impact the terminal a few
hours either side of 15z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

With some locales possibly coming within a few degrees of near
record highs on Sunday, April 14th, here is the list of records
for this day:


Goodland, KS........88F in 2017

McCook, NE..........92F in 1940

Burlington, CO......90F in 2006

Hill City, KS.......94F in 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 10 PM MDT /11
    PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for KSZ004-016.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for COZ252>254.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 10 PM MDT /11
    PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079-080.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...JN