912
FXPQ50 PGUM 100754
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
554 PM ChST Fri May 10 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows just isolated clouds and no significant showers over
the Mariana Islands. Moderate to occasional fresh gusts of winds were
reported at regional airports. Combined seas are 4 to 6 feet, with
the higher swell and wind waves along eastern coasts of the islands,
and through the channels.

&&

.Discussion...
Fair weather prevails over the Marianas. Shower coverage will remain
isolated and light this weekend. By next week there could be upticks
in clouds and showers with passing surface troughs embedded in the
trade-wind flow.

&&

.Marine...
Models indicate mainly moderate trade winds and combined seas of 4
to 6 can be expected the next few days. Also, as the northeast swell
diminishes, the east trade-wind swell will build a little through the
weekend. Moderate risk of rip currents will persist for east facing
reefs thru the next several days as the easterly trade-wind swell
builds slightly.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Trade convergence and upper level diffluence are expected to develop
as the trade-wind trough just of east of Pohnpei moves over the
island later tonight. Model analysis during the day still indicating
a northward shift of trade convergence through the weekend before
becoming fragmented early next week. For middle and latter part of
next week, both ECMWF and GFS show trade convergence strengthening
with periods of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected
for Majuro, Kosrae, and Pohnpei.

Gentle to moderate trades and combined seas of 4 to 6 feet are
expected through early next week at Majuro, Kosrae, and Pohnpei.


&&

.Western Micronesia...
A trough impinging into the Near-Equatorial Trough south of Yap and
Palau has generated scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
during the day. Latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance
indicates the NET will stay nearly stationary with several embedded
weak circulations breaking off the trough and moving west-northwest
from the trough. As the weak circulations move west-northwest, the
circulations are expected to remain weak before gradually
dissipating. These circulations will bring periods of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms through at least early next week
at Palau and Yap. For Chuuk, trade-wind troughs impinging on the NET
will bring periods of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through early next week.

Gentle to moderate trades and combined seas of 4 to 6 feet are
expected at Chuuk, Yap, and Palau.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Simpson
Micronesia: Kelly