272
FXUS64 KHUN 102305
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
605 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A very tranquil weekend unfolds this evening and tonight as
surface high pressure moves over the Southern Plains underneath
northwest flow aloft. Winds will cease gusting near 15-20 mph from
the north this evening and become calm overnight. Skies become
mostly clear, which will allow for good radiational cooling and a
very refreshing night as lows drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.
Low lying areas, sheltered valleys, or areas near large bodies of
water may have patchy fog develop in the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Not too much to write about this weekend as weak ridging aloft
builds in this weekend with high pressure in place at the surface.
Skies remain mostly clear through the weekend with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.
Saturday will be breezy with west winds near 10-15 mph but the
center of the surface high will keep winds much lighter and more
variable on Sunday. Patchy fog will again be possible late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but most areas should
stay clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An unsettled and generally wet pattern is in the forecast for the
new work week. At the start of the period, surface high pressure
over the eastern CONUS will move towards the SE coast by Monday
morning. While this occurs, a system that should bring convection
over the southern Great Plains will rapidly advance to the NE
under a subtropical flow from the SW/northern Mexico. This next
system will bring an increase in clouds and return chances of
showers beginning before daybreak for parts of NW to north central
Alabama, then overspreading the rest of the area during the
course of Mon morning. Before showers return, a southern flow and
higher heights should make for a slightly milder Sunday night with
lows in the mid/upper 50s. More clouds and higher rain chances
will make for a cooler start to the work week, with highs Mon in
the mid 70s. Have returned isolated to scattered chances of
thunderstorms Mon afternoon and evening. A feed of moisture from
the south will continue into Tuesday evening, with scattered to
numerous showers, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Overall
Thunderstorm intensity at this time looks to be general, with
possible gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning
strikes. Instances of heavier precipitation on our rather wet
soils could run off, bringing a risk of ponding of water and/or
flash flooding. Too many variations in model output further out
precludes trying to pick the wettest day, and where it will occur.

Rain chances will continue for the mid and latter half of the
week as another system moves in from the west. Despite more clouds
than sun and daily shower/thunderstorm chances, a moderation in
the airmass should help daily high temperatures return into the
lower 80s. Lows for the mid/latter half of the week should range
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

With high pressure out of the Plains States building into much of
the region, VFR conds are generally expected thru the TAF period.
NNW winds near 8-9kt with higher gusts will also become light/var
this evening, before turning NW around 8-9kt Sat morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...09