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000
FXUS63 KICT 231946
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic storm chances from Wednesday night through early
  Sunday with strong to severe storms possible.

- Storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning may be strong
  with small hail the main concern.

- Severe storms are possible along and west of I-135 late
  Thursday night.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A shortwave trough was digging over the Upper Mississippi Valley
area this afternoon while a progressive zonal flow was present
upstream across the central CONUS. At the surface, a cold front was
bisecting Kansas with breezy northeast winds in it`s wake. This
front is progged to move over the area today before becoming
stationary across OK tonight and Wed. Despite northeast winds,
slightly above normal temperatures were observed across the area
this afternoon. A subtle shortwave trough drifting eastward tonight
may bring an isolated or widely scattered shower or two to parts of
central KS late tonight while continuing into the day on Wednesday.
Moisture transport is progged to increase later on Wednesday into
Wednesday night bringing higher probabilities for showers and storms
to the area. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with highs near
70 for expected for most areas. Modest elevated buoyancy will bring
the potential for some small hail but widespread strong or severe
storms appear unlikely at this time on Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

Thursday...A mid/upper trough over southern California on Wednesday
is progged to race eastward across the Southwest and move into the
Rockies late in the period. Low level moisture will return northward
across the Central Plains allowing the airmass to reload in the wake
of the morning showers and storms. Another round of storms is
expected to develop along a developing dryline expected to reside
over southwest KS and points southward. Widely scattered storms are
then expected to move northeastward after dark. We continue to see
some support for damaging wind and large hail with any storms that
manage to persist into our area on Thursday night, especially for
areas west of I-135.

The quality moisture will be shunted eastward on Friday before
returning back westward again on Friday night as the next shortwave
trough approaches late in the night. Some modest pops were
maintained across eastern Kansas where a another round of severe
storms could impact southeast KS on Friday afternoon. As the
moisture returns westward Friday night, we think the cap will
inhibit deep moist convection during the overnight hours.

Sat...Another shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies
negatively tilted late in the period on Sat. Depending on the timing
of deep moist convection to our south, we may see another round of
severe storms impact much of the region. Early storm development to
our south leads to lower confidence at this time.

Sun-Tue...Large-scale forcing for subsidence will overspread the
region from west to east in the wake of the storm system on Sunday
bringing an end from west to east of any lingering storms. Dry and
seasonably mild conditions are anticipated as we move into the early
portion of next week withe highs in the 70s on Monday. Rising
heights/increasing thickness will support rising temperatures on Tue
with highs climbing into the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. A wind
shift/cold front will continue to move south across the area
today. Expect breezy northeast winds to continue behind the
front and diminish tonight. Winds will slowly veer turning
easterly by end of the TAF period.

Light showers and an isolated storm will be possible(20-30%
chance) late tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Much drier air and gusty southwest winds will support very high
grassland fire danger across portions of central and south
central Kansas during the afternoon hours on Friday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KMB
FIRE WEATHER...MWM