010
FXUS64 KJAN 301425 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
925 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Early morning fog has mixed out, and the Dense Fog Advisory was
allowed to expire. Low-level moisture is lifting to patches of low
clouds which should continue to further mix through this
afternoon. Without deep mixing or a substantial air mass change,
there will likely be enough moisture left behind for additional
fog to develop tonight. This will be especially true in river
valleys and other low lying areas. Have introduced a mention of
fog to the weather grids for tonight/Wednesday morning. Will
monitor trends with mixing today to determine if another Dense Fog
Advisory might be needed tonight. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Today and tonight...

Fog has developed across the area under clear skies in the wake of a
shortwave and will likely persist through the night and into early
morning. Fog will begin to mix to a low stratus deck before lifting
later this morning. Clouds will gradually clear this afternoon. High
temperatures should reach the mid 80s. Quiet conditions continue
tonight under the influence of upper ridging and surface high
pressure. This should allow temperatures to drop to the low 60s
across the area tonight./SAS/

Wednesday through Monday: Warmer than normal through the period with
disturbed weather as the southern branch of the jet stream meanders
over the region combining with a few stalled boundaries.

Come Wednesday morning shortwave ridging aloft will be over our
region while a surface high will be centered over the Appalachians
and ridging back across our CWA. Wl start out rather dry with
PWATs less than an inch but the ridging aloft and the surface high
will shift east through the day resulting in a decent return
flow. PWATs will increase to nearly an inch and a half across the
southwest and daytime heating will lead to a chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon. This activity should see a
distinct diurnal trend and dissipate by early evening. Thursday a
northern stream disturbance will help develop a nearly stacked low
over the northern Plains. This system will drop a cold front our
way. In addition a southern stream disturbance moving out of the
southern Plains may develop an MCS by Thursday afternoon over
east Texas that may edge into our western zones before
dissipating. Rain chances will increase over our west and
northwest zones Thursday and Thursday night. The cold front is
expected to drop into our CWA Friday and lead to greater rain
chances across our whole CWA but the greatest rain chances will be
across the northwest half of the CWA. The stalled cold front will
still be over our CWA Saturday when another northern stream
disturbance tries to drop a boundary into our CWA. This boundary
looks to stall across the northern portions of our CWA. Friday
night into Monday morning rain chances will likely be confined to
the north of Interstate 20 while our southern zones remain dry.
Highest afternoon temperatures are expected across our southern
zones that may top out near 90F each afternoon Saturday through
Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

LIFR/IFR conditions this morning due to fog and very low
ceilings. Things should improve by mid morning as most fog lifts
and clouds will begin to clear by early afternoon. VFR conditions
will prevail for the remainder of the period once fog clears.
Winds remain light and variable./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  62  88  64 /   0   0  20  10
Meridian      84  60  88  62 /  10   0  10   0
Vicksburg     84  62  88  65 /   0   0  20  10
Hattiesburg   86  63  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
Natchez       85  63  87  65 /   0   0  30   0
Greenville    83  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
Greenwood     83  63  88  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/22/SAS20