Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
599 FXUS62 KKEY 040809 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 409 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure remains centered near Bermuda and reaches southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. East winds at the Reef average 15 to 20 knots, similar to last night at this time. If this was a couple months from now the Straits of Florida would be speckled with nocturnally enhanced showers. The latest KBYX scans note just a few showers, likely due to the very dry profile (PW ~1.0") sampled by the 00Z KKEY RAOB. Temperatures are in the upper 70s across the island chain, a few degrees below the nearshore SSTs in the lower 80s. It does not feel too bad outside right now with dewpoints near 70. .FORECAST... Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper level low digging equatorward through eastern Cuba. The center of the mean layer ridging is displaced to the west of Central America, although 500 mb heights near the Yucatan are near 590 dm. The upper low will remain near or east of the Keys today through Tuesday night. This will prevent the deep mean layer ridge from sliding east. By Wednesday or Wednesday night, the mean layer ridge will progress to the east and finally kick the upper low deeper into the North Atlantic. Per the sensible weather elements, moderate to fresh easterly breezes will persist for the next several days. Shallow undulations in low-level moisture will maintain slim rain chances. As the upper low lifts north through Cuba and meanders near the Keys Sunday night through Monday night, the low level moisture may deepen somewhat. We continue to highlight 20% chances for this time frame, which is above climo and the MOS consensus. As the mean layer ridge takes hold around mid-week, slightly diminished breezes will take on more of an east-southeast fetch. Low-level moisture depth will be suppressed to below 900 mb. Forecast soundings suggest near nil rain chances, but we leaned on climo and held onto the 10% chances into the extended. Fans of humidity will be cheering as dewpoints return to the mid to upper 70s by next weekend :| && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several days. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Saturday evening, with rain chances remaining very low. Brief MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet will be possible, mainly during the predawn and early morning hours. Surface winds will remain from the E to ESE at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 78 85 77 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 85 78 85 77 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest