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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230830
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
430 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Partly cloudy, breezy and mild conditions prevail along the
Florida Keys on this early Tuesday morning. Radars detect only a
few showers in the distant Straits of Florida. Temperatures along
the island chain are in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s, and winds on land from the northeast at 15
to 20 mph. Surface analysis depicts the cold front that passed
through the Keys Monday afternoon extending from the western
Atlantic across the northern Bahamas to the north coast of Cuba,
with high pressure sprawling from New England to the northern Gulf
of Mexico. Aloft, a cutoff low and associated trough are moving
offshore over the western Atlantic, while upstream lower/mid level
ridging builds over the Southeastern states. There is a weak mid
level disturbance over the central Gulf of Mexico, marked by an
area of mid/upper level cloudiness. The 00Z Key West sounding
sampled a fair amount of moisture in the lower to mid levels, with
PW of 1.51 inches, but more recent MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery
shows a much drier airmass with estimated PWs below one inch
pressing southward across South Florida and toward the Keys.

Today will see some morning clouds give way to mostly sunny skies
by afternoon, with isolated shower activity confined to the
distant Straits. Max temps will be a few degrees cooler than
observed on Monday, only reaching the lower 80s. Combined with
dewpoints in the mid 60s and fresh NE/E breezes, outdoor
conditions will be quite pleasant.

One possible minor fly in the ointment tonight will be the mid
level disturbance currently moving across the Gulf. While this
feature should pass SW of the Keys with any associated light
shower activity remaining over the Straits, a few showers cannot
be totally ruled out especially for the Lower Keys. Will keep the
forecast dry for now, but will monitor this feature for any
changes. Otherwise, outstanding late dry season weather will
prevail through the rest of the work week and into the weekend,
with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and temps remaining near
normal for this time of year. Expect lows in the mid 70s and highs
in the lower 80s, with dewpoints holding in the 60s. Heading into
the weekend, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will
bring increasing easterly breezes across the Keys, with just
enough shallow moisture returning to mention dime PoPs from
Saturday night onward. Temps and dewpoints will change little
through the weekend, as the inevitable heat and humidity of the
upcoming wet season continues to be held at bay for at least
another week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Fresh breezes have quickly veered around to the NE during the late
night hours across the Keys coastal waters, with the most recent
obs along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN reporting wind speeds of
13 to 19 knots. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been dropped,
but Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are posted for all
marine zones today. An extended period of SCA conditions appears
likely beginning sometime Friday and continuing through the
weekend. From the synopsis, fresh northeast to east breezes today
will slacken to gentle to moderate tonight through Thursday across
the Keys coastal waters, as high pressure moves from the
Southeastern states offshore into the western Atlantic. A stronger
high will move into the western North Atlantic late this week and
into the weekend, producing strong easterly breezes across the
Keys waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the
TAF period. Near surface northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with
gusts of 15 to 20 knots this morning will become northeast to
east by midday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1874, the daily record high temperature of 89F was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP

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