National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KLBF 170903
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
403 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick moving system will impact the area this evening and
  tonight, with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures along
  with showers and thunderstorms.

- Below average temperatures and additional chances for
  precipitation persist into the weekend, before a warming trend
  begins early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The strong storm system responsible for yesterday`s severe weather
and today`s strong winds and precipitation continues to push off to
the east of the area, and is now centered over southern Minnesota.
Winds continue to weaken across the area early this morning, with
gusty northwest winds confined to areas of north central Nebraska.

The lull in active weather looks to be brief today however, as
another quick moving system centered in southern Saskatchewan,
is progged to eject eastward and drag a trough axis through the
area tonight. At the surface, increasing lee cyclogenesis is
anticipated across southeastern Colorado this afternoon. In
response, a warm front is anticipated to lift northward into
southwest Nebraska, reaching near the I-80 corridor by late
afternoon. North of this boundary, weak northerly flow and
subtle cold advection should keep highs in the 50s to low 60s.
South of the warm front, increasing warm advection should
promote highs climbing well into the 70s. Some lingering
uncertainty remains for high temperatures today in areas
near/north of I-80 and near/south of HWY 2. This is tied to the
progress of the warm frontal boundary, and exactly how far north
it can lift will have large impacts on temperatures this
afternoon. In fact, spreads of 5-10 degrees exist between
25-75th percentile max temps for locations in this area. For
this reason, trends in the warm front`s progression will need to
be monitored and adjustments to temperatures may be needed.

By this evening, a surface low will eject southeastward across
Manitoba, dragging cold front through the area. Good pressure rises
on the order of 9-12mb/3hr are expected across southwest Nebraska
with the frontal passage and a period of gusty northwest winds can
be expected as the front passes. In fact, a brief period of gusts up
to 40 miles per hour are possible late this evening. Also along this
boundary, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible,
bringing a threat for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Very
meager instability and wind shear will keep any severe threat
minimal in any thunderstorm activity. Behind the cold front, as the
mid-level trough axis begins to push through the area into tonight,
rapid cold advection and a tightening thermal gradient aloft should
lead to quickly increasing FGEN. This should lead to a band of
heavier stratiform precipitation developing behind the surface cold
front. Precipitation type continues to largely look to remain in the
form of rain, though cannot totally rule out some snowflakes mixing
in as increasing cold advection and temperatures fall overnight.
Some convective enhancement is anticipated in this band of precip,
and some embedded lightning is possible. This will also help to lead
to efficient precipitation rates, and local amounts exceeding 0.50"
are likely where this band tracks. Some uncertainty remains with
where that will be, though portions of the Sandhills look to be the
most likely area to see greater accumulations at this time.

The band of precip will quickly exit the area by late Thursday
morning, with the remainder of the day looking dry. Continued
northerly flow/cold advection in the wake of the departing system
will keep highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The active pattern persists with the upper pattern transitioning
zonal and additional fast moving shortwaves progressing through the
area in the mean flow aloft. The first of which looks to arrive
Friday night into Saturday, as an upper trough axis swings through
the northern Plains. At the lower levels, broad easterly upslope
flow will develop across western Nebraska, as high pressure spills
into the Plains behind a deep upper trough over eastern Canada. The
increasing isentropic upglide should promote precipitation
development for areas near and west of HWY 61 Friday night into
Saturday, with lessening chances with eastward extent. Much colder
air aloft than with tonight/Thursday`s system added to the time of
day (early Saturday morning) looks to promote more of a rain/snow or
pure snow p-type across western Nebraska. Some light slushy snow
accumulations would be possible for areas west of HWY 61 Saturday
morning, though this remains very low confidence for now.

Surface high pressure finally begins to push off to the southeast of
the area by Sunday, with flow locally returning southerly in its
wake. This should mark the beginning of a warming trend Sunday and
into next week, with highs returning to near/above average.
Additional precipitation chances will exist in this period as well,
though confidence wanes with increasing spread in ensemble and
deterministic guidance.&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The last batch of low stratus clouds over far north central
Nebraska (ONL) will lift and exit overnight, while clear skies
remain over western Nebraska. A new batch of clouds will move
in midday and gradually lower into the evening with most
terminals dropping into MVFR after sunset. Precipitation will
begin to overspread the Sandhills by 18/03z, leading to visby
reductions. Meanwhile, southeast winds transition to northeast
and strengthen steadily late in the day for southern terminals
(LBF). Northwest near surface winds will prevail through the
period for northern terminals (VTN).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Snively