773
FXUS64 KLCH 020437
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1137 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The super cell storms just to the northwest of the forecast area
this evening look like they have formed into a MCV feature.
However, it doesn`t seem to be making much progress toward the
forecast area. Other showers and storms are starting to form to
the south and southwest of the MCV, so this may be the beginning
of the big MCS complex that some guidance is suggesting will form
and eventually accelerate to the east as a bow echo feature later
tonight into Thursday morning once the upper level energy catches
up to it, although there is still some uncertainty as to the
exact timing of this feature, how strong it will be, and can it
push all the way through the forecast area.

With the uncertainty, will not make any changes to the forecast
at this time. It should be noted that there is the low end
damaging thunderstorm wind potential if the bow echo does form and
accelerate. The heavy rain potential looks to be the bigger
concern, from either the high rainfall rates within a severe line
or, a slow moving system with moderate rainfall that will produce
rain for a longer period, with the rain falling on grounds with
low flash flood guidance and that already have high hydrologic
flows on drainage basins.

For the marine forecast, did add small craft exercise caution for
the zones west of Intracoastal City for sustained winds between 15
and 20 knots and seas nearing 6 feet.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A more active weather pattern is expected for the short term.
Starting this afternoon a few isolated showers and storms moved
through the area, with storms over part of the offshore gulf waters.
Activity of this sort is expected to temporarily taper over the
evening, however we will see it ramp up early Thursday morning and
continue from there.

Flow aloft will become southwesterly with southerly flow already
prevailing at the surface. Ample moisture will pull into the area.
PWATs have (and will continue) to increase with max values shy of
the 2 inch mark tomorrow afternoon over parts of SETX and CenLA.

Models do not seem to be handling the system the best, however the
general consensus is that scattered to numerous showers and storms
will ramp up before daybreak tomorrow with the bulk of the storm
system exiting off to the east in the late afternoon hours.
Additional scattered showers will persist behind the main line
going into the evening. Another short "quiet" period will occur
between that and an additional round of activity that will pick up
late tomorrow night into Friday.

Rainfall totals over the period will be in the 1 to 3 inch range
with higher amounts possible in some areas. The bulk of the rain,
however, is expected to occur tomorrow. Future additional amounts
will exacerbate current flooding conditions. As a result, a Flood
Watch will be in effect starting early tomorrow morning.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A couple of weak disturbances moving overhead in the zonal flow
aloft will keep small rain chances in the forecast through the
weekend, mainly north of I-10. Overall, this convection looks like
it`ll be fairly isolated over the local area, with better coverage
expected further to our north. Otherwise, the weekend will consist
of warm and humid conditions with highs expected to top out in the
mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Moving into the work week a large mid/upper level trough begins to
strengthen over the Rockies while at the surface a cold front/low
pressure system will be moving into the Plains. This system will
shift east across the north/central Plains through the mid-week time
frame, keeping a west to southwest flow overhead aloft. Although the
cold front will remain well to our north, the pressure gradient
overhead is expected to tighten in response which will bring breezy
conditions across the CWA from Mon and beyond. Temperature wise,
warming temps are on the horizon, with highs on Mon in the mid to
upper 80s warming further into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wed.
Overnight, lows will generally range from the low to mid 60s.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Not a lot has changed in the thinking for the aviation forecast.
Low clouds will continue to form over the next few hours with MVFR
conditions possibly down to IFR conditions.

After 02/11z or so, the forecast will depend on how the MCS
develops over Texas and how it moves across the forecast area. At
this time will cover this with TEMPO for storms at KBPT by 02/14z
and PROB30 at all remaining terminals starting at KLCH/KAEX at
02/15z and starting at KLFT/KARA at 02/16z.

If the storm complex does make it through, expect IFR conditions
with low visibility from heavy rainfall along with gusty winds.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A brief period of increasing rain chances, winds and seas will
take place on Thursday ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. No
severe or Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this
disturbance. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are
anticipated through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  80  67  80 /  20  90  40  80
LCH  72  82  71  81 /  30  60  30  50
LFT  72  85  72  82 /  10  50  20  50
BPT  72  83  71  83 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07