489
FXUS64 KLCH 011139
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
639 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Main talking point in the short term period is the hoisting of a
new Flood Watch due to anticipated heavy rain threat late tonight
into Thursday. Newly developing shortwave over Deep Central Texas
will spurn the development of convection this afternoon. As the
shortwave moves northeast towards the DFW metro, southwest flow
over this convection will result in an upscale growth of these
storms that will then move eastward. The line is expected to
develop into a defined MCS of sorts as it enters Deep Southeast
Texas after midnight tonight. Dewpoints have already rebounded
after the last boundary passage and further southeast flow and
moisture flux will place a rich airmass back into our CWA ahead
of this new boundary. Forecast PWATs from 1.60 to 1.75 inches
indicate storms will be very efficient rain-makers and latest
probs from the NBM and HREF point to ~20 percent probability that
the Lakes area will receive another 3+ inches with these storms.

Guidance is indicating this round of storms will be more
progressive than the last two events, but with very weak low level
flow and south-southwest flow at 700 mb, I`m hesitant to believe
this system will move through in a short period. Due to this
concern, the anticipated rainfall and antecedent conditions, a
Flood Watch has been issued for much of our inland area from 1 AM
Tonight to 7 PM Thursday.

Southerly flow will prevail even after the line of storms passes,
working to rebound the moist airmass once again. This will aid in
the development of more showers and thunderstorms into Friday. For
now the Flood Watch ends Thursday evening, but if later guidance
shows another round of appreciable rainfall Friday, further
extensions or a new Watch may become necessary.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A mainly zonal flow aloft expected this weekend, with weak upper
level disturbances keeping at least a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms north of I-10 for Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 60s, and afternoon highs
in the mid 80s.

By Monday, a large mid to upper level trough over the Western U.S.
expected to lift rapidly northeast, with most of the moisture and
lift well north of the region. By Tuesday and Wednesday, The mid to
upper level pattern will be generally dominated by a large low over
the upper Midwest, a building ridge over the Southern Gulf/NW
Caribbean, with the Southern U.S. remaining predominately in a zonal
flow aloft. Available moisture remains limited at this point, as
well as blended guidance showing little if any precipitation.
Temperatures daybreak Monday expected in the upper 60s to near 70
with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, temperatures are expected to gradually rise into the
lower 70s for overnight lows, and upper 80s to lower 90s for
afternoon highs.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Areas of ground fog developed once again this morning and are
impacting all terminals in one way or another. Now that sun has
risen expect low VIS to mix out by 14Z with 10SM VIS to prevail
through at least sundown. Another round of fog is expected again
tonight but forecaster guidance is too low to bring terminals down
to less than 1SM.

Expect southeast winds today with some gusts in the afternoon.
Strong moisture advection off the Gulf of Mexico will bring
ceilings down from VFR to MVFR this afternoon along with the
possibility of VCTS at western terminals. Moisture hangs around
after sundown which will bring about that secondary threat of fog
and continued MVFR to IFR ceilings.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A brief period of increasing rain chances, winds and seas will
take place on Thursday ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. No
severe or Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this
disturbance. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are
anticipated through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  68  81  67 /   0  10  60  40
LCH  86  72  82  71 /  20  20  30  30
LFT  89  72  84  72 /  10  10  20  20
BPT  85  72  83  71 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...24