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000
FXUS64 KLIX 250456
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1156 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Earlier cloud cover over the northern half of the area has
dissipated as expected. Hourly temperature/dew point trends are
tracking well at present. Guidance continues to be a rather mixed
bag on fog development toward sunrise. Depending on the guidance
source, it ranges from a few patches of fog to being widespread.
Mention of patchy fog was already in the public forecast, and see
little reason to back off of that at this time.

Bottom line, no mid to late evening public forecast update
anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Northwesterly flow remains over our region as we reside between a
shortwave ridge to our west and a modestly amplified trough east
of us. With heights and thicknesses continuing to increase,
temperatures have responded today with a few places exceeding the
80 degree mark. A surface front is currently over northern AL/MS
and will drop southward with time toward our region. However, with
the ridge upstream building in, this almost backdoor cold front
will be just shy of making it into our region. Guidance has a very
very modest QPF signal over our northwest CWFA this evening.
Cannot rule out a sprinkle or two in that area. The main impact
from the front is potential moisture pooling and fog overnight
ahead of the front with the best potential along and north of the
I10/12 corridor and west of I55. Went with patchy fog for now, but
some patchy dense fog at times cannot be ruled out in the fog
favored locations.

Going into Thursday the pattern transitions just a bit. H5 flow
will evolve to a more active southwesterly flow as an amplifying
upper trough moves east and suppresses the upper ridge down into
the Gulf of Mexico. Despite being suppressed, our heights and
thicknesses will continue to gradually rise and again will
continue our warming trend through the end of the short term
period. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A large scale trough will reside across the Rockies and western
half of the US. A modest ridge will remain in place across the
east as the long term period begins, leaving our region in an
active southwesterly flow aloft. H5 impulses will ride over the
ridge from the southwest to the northern plains and Cornbelt
region. This will help push yet another cold front toward our
region, but as the upper level support moves downstream and the
front becomes parallel to the mean flow, the front will stall
across the ArkLaTex region keeping most of the rain with it just
to our northwest this weekend. Temperatures look to remain a few
degrees above average through much of this time as well. Going
into the new workweek, another H5 impulse begins to amplify over
the high plains, which will send the front closer to our region.
Finally by this point the front may start to get close enough for
POPs Monday afternoon with the best potential across the northern
and western tier. A strengthening upper ridge by the end of the
forecast period will help stall this front again just to our north
and the POPs/QPF associated with this feature may remain north of
the area. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals. Earlier mid level clouds
dissipated shortly after sunset. Main concern will be the
potential for development of radiation type fog around sunrise.
Where it does occur, IFR or lower conditions will be possible for
a few hours. Most favored terminals would be KMCB and KGPT, but
cannot rule it out entirely at most terminals. Should see rapid
improvement to VFR around 14z, with only scattered cumulus beyond
that point. Afternoon cloud bases will probably be around FL040,
with cumulus dissipating after sunset. Threat for fog Friday
morning should be less with a little more wind expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Mostly favorable marine conditions will continue through Thursday.
Late Thursday and into the upcoming weekend winds will increase
in response to a tightening of the pressure gradient between high
pressure east and low pressure across the plains. Light to
moderate winds and seas can be expected through the weekend and
into early next week. This should lead to some headlines being
needed possibly as early as Friday and into the start of the new
workweek. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  82  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  62  86  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  61  83  66  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  65  83  69  83 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  62  81  66  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  59  84  64  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...RDF