877
FXUS64 KLIX 021649
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Update sent to increase the PoPs across much of the area. CAMs as
usual with these scenarios poorly handling how far the rain and
storms move east and how fast they tend to as well. Still some LL
convergence over the western portions of the CWA while a subtle
mid lvl jet works east across the northwestern Gulf and southern
LA. Also a small but impressive area of upper lvl diffluence
anchored back in southeast TX and through SELA before that
completely closes off. Highest SFC based CAPE is across south-
central and into SELA while the best ML Cape is right along the
coast. Theta E ridge is right along the Atchafalaya. With all of
that storms will likely have little problem crossing the
Atchafalaya but after that should see a steady decrease in
intensity and coverage. Locations northwest of a line from Pierre
Part, LA to McComb, MS have the best chance of seeing moderate to
some brief heavy rain and possibly a few strong storms. East of
that line the potential for rain will decrease. Anticipate most of
southwest MS and SELA will see some rain and the occasional
lightning strike. Coastal MS has the greatest uncertainty as
storms could really struggle to get that far east with possibly
only a few light showers. The southshore is also a little
uncertain as we do anticipate rain to finally move in around 19Z
but it could be light rain but it would also likely stick around
for 3-4 hours. There is also a good chance that there would be a
few lightning strikes but overall no major impacts are expected
outside of light to short periods of moderate rain and a rumble or
two of thunder. /CAB/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A mid-level shortwave trough is ejecting off the southern Rockies this
morning which has initiated widespread deep convection across the
Southern Great Plains. This convection is providing a thickening
cirrus canopy which should mitigate strong radiational cooling
sufficient for widespread fog development for much of the area
with exception to the Pearl River Basin and coastal MS where skies
remain clearer. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued in
these areas for the expectation of patchy dense fog redeveloping
around sunrise this morning.

We`ll continue to monitor the progress of the convective systems
nearing SW LA this hour, but CAM guidance has greatly backed off
this convection reaching our areas prior to the afternoon hours.
Propagation of these MCSs remains slower than forecast and
maintenance of this convection all the way into our areas is less
likely now. However, further redevelopment of convection during
the day today across east Texas could still provide some rain to
particularly northwest areas later in the day. As the shortwave
departs the area through the evening hours though it would be less
likely to see showers and storms creep further into the area as
subsidence begins to suppress maintenance of new convection. As a
result, will back down PoPs for areas especially along the coast.

Friday rain chances area much healthier areawide with showers and
storms gradually spreading over the area in association with a
weaker shortwave trough following along within the persistent
west-southwesterly flow of this longwave pattern. Impacts from
severe weather and excessive rainfall are overall minimal in
association with these two rounds of rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The long term looks rather hot and humid as we move deeper into
May. Aside from a few glancing blows from ejecting weak shortwaves
provide slight chances of rain in northern areas this weekend, the
longwave pattern amplifies once again with a deep west coast
trough enhancing mid-level ridging overhead. This will keep us
rain free, but still entrenched in persistent southeasterly flow
at the surface which will continue to pump gulf moisture through the
area. High mid-level temps and muggy overnight conditions will
also mean the potential for above normal high temperatures well
into the upper 80s to low 90s into next week. While not quite
record-breaking for most sites, it will certainly be feeling more
like we skipped ahead to June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Impacts for most terminals are expected over the next 6 to 12
hours but how much is more of a question. Showers and
thunderstorms are moving in and trying to push farther east. MCb
and BTR will likely see the greatest impacts with MVFR cigs and
vsbys expected at times but could even be down to IFR. HDC has the
next best chance of seeing impacts while impacts at MSY, NEW, HUM,
and ASD should not be as bad. MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible
especially if any TSRA moves over those terminals but rain will
likely be on the downward trend. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

IFR to LIFR CIGs are the prevailing impact at most terminals this
morning with southeast wind just strong enough to keep more dense
fog from settling at the surface. Even so, VIS impacts are evident
especially at ASD, MCB, and HDC this morning. CIGs/VIS impacts
should gradually improve at all terminals through the morning. BKN
skies will be on the increase by midday as remnant convection
from a weakening squall line approaches from the west. -RA will
become more prevalent at BTR, MCB, and HDC especially in the
afternoon. Cannot rule out periods of TS impacts in these areas
primarily north of the I-10 corridor. Thereafter, a break in the
rain but MVFR to IFR CIGs building back in tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Surface high pressure centered to our east over Southeast CONUS
will keep the coastal waters in persistent southeast winds of
around 10 knots through the weekend and into next week. Seas will
also be fairly persistent at 1 to 3 feet through the period.
Overall, no significant concerns to maritime operations are
anticipated through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  65  78  64 /  70  40  60  20
BTR  84  70  82  68 /  80  40  60  10
ASD  84  69  84  67 /  60  50  30  10
MSY  84  72  84  72 /  60  60  30  10
GPT  81  70  82  69 /  20  20  10  10
PQL  83  68  84  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TJS