Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
812 FXUS65 KLKN 242321 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 421 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Active weather will continue through Friday as a low pressure trough impacts the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with more of the same for Thursday, particularly for northeastern Nevada. Snow melt related flooding and elevated stream flows will continue through the weekend across portions of the Humboldt River and northern Elko county. Drier conditions return for the weekend with lingering cloud cover and light shower activity across the northern Tier of the state early next week. && .AVIATION UPDATE...Communications have been restored at KWMC terminal and weather observations are being ingested. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Moisture convergence along a near-stationary boundary along with daytime heating and increasing instability will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm develop into the early evening hours across portions of central and northern Nevada. Small hail, cloud to ground lightning and brief gusty winds will be the primary threat. A conditionally unstable atmosphere will linger into the overnight hours across much of the area leading to non-trivial lightning potential into Thursday morning. Lows tonight will be quite mild in the lower 40s. An upper-trough will pivot through the Southwest U.S. allowing an overall northwest flow to commence Thursday across Nevada. This will drag a cold front across the state lowering temperatures by several degrees with highs in the lower to mid-60s. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop once again across much of eastern and northeastern Nevada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph will develop as well. Total precipitation through THursday night will range from one quarter inch to more than half an inch in some higher mountain range locations. Snow levels will begin to drop Thursday as colder air moves into the region. However, impacts from snow will remain above 7500 feet through Thursday night. LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday Models continue to show a strong northern stream upper trough on track for Friday into Saturday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across Nevada. However there is a change early in the week, as the system that was to move through Monday now looks to follow a more northern track and affect Idaho and Montana and just miss northern NV. So the break in the active pattern beginning Sunday will last through Wednesday. the active pattern does look to continue with another northern stream upper trough that will be poised off the Pacific NW just outside of this forecast period on Thursday. Precipitation chances Friday and Saturday will peak at near 100% Friday, then dropping to a 30% to 40% of scattered showers and storms Saturday as the upper low moves overhead, Sunday through Wednesday precipitation chances drop to less that 10%, with the best chances across far northern NV as storm track shifts north. Snow levels for the weekend look to range around 7000 ft to 8000 ft and look to remain in this range, as these systems have a more Pacific trajectory and dont have much cold air to work with. Look for a mix of rain and thunderstorms for the valleys and passes, with snow for the mountain ranges. Storm total accumulations for Friday and Saturday still looks to be decent, with QPF amounts of 0.25 to 1.25+ of rainfall for the valleys and passes, with the heaviest amounts across the eastern half of NV. Snow wise the mountain ranges above 8000 feet could see up to 12-18 inches of new snow. Temperatures and Winds: Give the active weather pattern temperatures will be cooling through Sunday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Highs will warm for the start of the work week with highs returning into the low 60s to low 70s by Wednesday. Lows will follow suite ranging in the upper 20s to upper 30s through Sunday morning. Lows then slowly warm into the upper 30s to upper 40s by Wednesday morning. Winds shifting Friday out of the W to NW direction through Monday at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Winds shift back to the west Tuesday and Wednesday at speeds of 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions through Thursday but conditions will vary as upper level trough moves overhead. VCTS with -SHRA will be possible for all terminals today and Thursday, stronger cells could briefly drop conditions to MVFR to even IFR levels should they impact a terminal. Winds will be breezy this afternoon with Variable W to NW winds at speeds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible. HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and central Nevada due to snow melt. Active weather including valley and mid-elevation rain showers are expected thru at least Friday. Wetting rains are expected and awareness should be exercised for sharp rises in faster responding streams and creeks under prolonged or heavier rain showers, especially with flows running high due to seasonal snow melt. Cooler temperatures are also expected the next few days, including freezing temperatures at night, which will likely slow high elevation snow melt. The Bruneau River is currently in action stage The river will likely rise further in the coming days. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast to reach minor flood stage by this weekend. The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood stage. The river is forecast to remain in minor flood stage over the next several days. Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in action stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. Mary`s River near Deeth continues to steadily rise and may reach Acton stage sometime Friday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86/99/99