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000
FXUS64 KLZK 241907
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
207 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Currently, calm and dry conditions prevail across much of the state.
Light rain showers will continue to be possible across portions of
west/southwest Arkansas as a weak front slides into those areas. As
the front slides back north overnight, an additional disturbance
will ride up the front late tonight into Thursday bringing a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is still
expected to remain on the low side.

As rain comes to an end from south to north late Thursday, a brief
break will persist into early Friday. However, a strong cold front
is expected to approach the state from the Central Plains bringing a
better chance for severe weather across at least the western half of
the state by Friday afternoon and evening (more details mentioned in
the long term). This active and unsettled weather pattern is
expected to continue into the long term period.

Temperatures will remain average to slightly above average through
the period. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to
lower 80s with overnight lows in the lower 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Not many value added changes will be forth coming this afternoon as
guidance continues to show very unsettled conditions through Tuesday
as a series of weather systems will move across the region. Earlier
in the week, guidance was showing some discrepancies in the timing
and overall placement of the major players but not so much this
afternoon. Therefore, a blend of model solutions will be used.

Period initiates with deep troughing over the western CONUS with
stout southwest flow aloft. Warm front will be well north of the
state with the majority of the forecast area seeing dew points well
into the 60s. Lingering severe weather chances will carry over from
Friday into Friday evening as a strong low pressure system located
in the central plains pulls off to the northeast.

Widespread precipitation will be ongoing Friday night and carrying
into Saturday morning. PWAT values will range between 1 and 1.5
inches with the highest maxima centered over the western part of the
CWA. Precipitation chances will be lower on Saturday as the FA will
be between weather system with the next one dropping into the four
corners. This system will follow a similar path to its predecessor
with the upper trough over the central plains by Sunday morning with
its surface reflection straddling the NE/KS border.

Cold front will stretch from the surface low through central OK and
into the Big Bend region of TX by Sunday morning. Front will move
slowly eastward Sunday/Sunday night and into western AR by Monday
morning. System is showing a much stronger QPF signal than the first
one as PWATS surge to near 2 inches Sunday night.

Widespread precipitation will be ongoing Sunday morning but guidance
is pointing towards a decrease in coverage and intensity before a
strong uptick in convection around sunset. Front will surge across
the state Sunday night with a swath of potentially heavy rain as it
does so with the highest QPF shifting to eastern Arkansas by Monday
morning. Severe weather chances will also increase along the boundary
Sunday and Sunday night with all modes of severe weather possible
with increasing confidence something will happen.

A threat that needs to be also addressed is the possibility of
excessive rainfall over the period of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
in which localized flash flooding will be possible across the state
and CWA. River flooding over the White, Black and Cache River basins
may become an issue as well. Precipitation will taper off from west
to east on Monday as the system finally pulls away. Temperatures
over this period will be slightly above normal when compared to
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

CIGs persist across portions of northern and southern Arkansas.
CIGs will gradually fill in and lower through the evening hours as
some rain chances (possibly TSRA) become possible by tomorrow.
Coverage of showers are not confident, therefore VCSH/VCTS have
been written in for many terminals. This unsettled weather pattern
will continue into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     54  64  57  78 /  40  80  40  50
Camden AR         61  81  64  82 /  10  20   0  30
Harrison AR       52  61  55  72 /  60  90  50  90
Hot Springs AR    57  74  62  80 /  30  50  10  60
Little Rock   AR  59  71  62  82 /  30  70  10  40
Monticello AR     62  81  66  83 /  10  30   0  10
Mount Ida AR      57  75  62  78 /  40  60  20  80
Mountain Home AR  52  61  54  74 /  40  90  50  80
Newport AR        55  67  59  79 /  20  70  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     59  76  64  82 /  20  50  10  20
Russellville AR   55  66  59  77 /  40  70  20  70
Searcy AR         54  66  58  81 /  30  80  20  30
Stuttgart AR      59  71  63  81 /  20  60  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...73