Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
282 FXUS64 KMAF 082310 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 610 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 No significant changes for the short term forecast with dry and warm weather continuing. WV satellite imagery shows a broad upper level low situated over northern CONUS which will transition to an positively tilted trough tonight, maintaining dry southwesterly flow aloft. A tightening gradient and compressional warming from downsloping winds today indicate above-normal temperatures with breezy winds this afternoon, and highs should reach the upper 80s/low 90s with 100s along the Rio Grande. Given the gusty winds and low humidity today, a Red Flag Warning in effect, and more information can be found in the fire weather discussion below. Things start to change on Thursday as a low cuts off from the upper level trough, pivoting over Utah and helping to pull a cold front down into Texas and New Mexico late Thursday. Model guidance places the front across the far northern portions of our CWA a few hours after peak heating, continuing a southward progression through Friday morning. There may be a decent temperature spread for highs on Thursday depending on the true arrival of the front, but for now, expect a similar day to Wednesday with highs mainly in the upper 80s/low 90s. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Thursday night, the upper trough is forecast to be parked over Nevada/Utah, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front will push southwest through to the Presidio Valley by 12Z, dropping highs Friday to AOB normal. Long-range models bring a shortwave through the Big Bend Area Friday, and this could kick off some convection Friday and Friday evening. During this time, the upper trough begins moving east, to near the Four Corners by 06Z Sunday. At 06Z Saturday, the dryline is forecast to be west of KELP, with modest low level moisture in place, and surface dewpoints most areas in the 50s. Large-scale ascent as the trough approaches, as well as easterly upslope flow, will open a window Saturday for perhaps the best chances of rain this forecast. POPs have jumped significantly in the last 24 hours. Long-range models still depict 40-60kts of deep-layer shear Saturday. On yesterday`s runs, models kept the steeper mid-layer lapse rates west of the CWA, but on today`s runs, they`re a bit farther east into our higher terrain, so some severe activity is looking more plausible for Saturday, especially in the warmer temperatures southwest. The upshot is PWATs increasing to ~ 1.25" or better by 18Z Saturday at KMAF, over 2 std devs higher than the mean of 0.67". So, a heavy rain possibility exists, as well. It would be nice to see the higher (western) terrain get some much- needed rain. Saturday looks to be the coolest day this forecast, w/highs coming in a pathetic ~ 10F below normal. Sunday, the trough passes north of the region, and a gradual recovery begins under zonal flow aloft. A Pac front will shove the dryline east, and convection along/east of this feature will be possible, tapering off to the east Sunday evening. Redevelopment is possible Monday afternoon, mainly over the Western Low Rolling Plains. By Wednesday afternoon, highs should be back up to a respectable 5-7F above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR prevails through the period with gusty winds subsiding over the next 1-2 hours. Westerly winds will increase again Thursday, but gusts will be limited to around 20-25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Critical fire weather conditions continue to be dryline dependent, and confined to areas that did not receive rainfall last week. Thursday, a cold front will limit critical fire weather over the northeast, but areas south of the front will still see single-digit relative humidity. However, increased 20-ft winds will be confined to the higher terrain, confining higher RFTIs there. With ERCs west of the Pecos 75th percentile or higher, this could be a marginal critical fire weather day, and we`ll leave this up to the next shift to decide. Friday through Wednesday, only near-critical fire weather conditions are anticipated, and west of the Pecos at that. Higher RFTIs look isolated enough each day to yield an elevated fire weather threat at best. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 58 87 58 79 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 58 88 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 67 100 66 82 / 0 0 10 30 Fort Stockton 64 96 60 78 / 0 0 10 30 Guadalupe Pass 58 79 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 55 85 54 75 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 51 87 51 79 / 0 0 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 60 89 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 63 90 60 77 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 60 93 60 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau- Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...29