370
ACUS11 KWNS 082228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082228
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...Central Texas...eastern Oklahoma...northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 208...210...

Valid 082228Z - 090030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 208, 210 continues.

SUMMARY...Storm development looks increasingly likely near and north
of the DFW metro. The primary risk will be very large hail and
severe wind gusts, though a tornado is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Storm development in northeastern Oklahoma is showing
some signs of back-building to the south. In central Texas, an
isolated supercell is ongoing southwest of Waco. Overall, the
expectation is for there to be an increase in storm coverage over
the next 1-2 hours. The most likely area for this to occur, given
visible satellite trends, is from the DFW metro northward into parts
of south-central Oklahoma. Cumulus have shown increasing signs of
vertical development and initiation seems likely in the near future.
Very large buoyancy, 45-55 kts of effective shear, and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for very large hail (2-4.5
inches) and severe wind gusts. The tornado threat is a little less
clear given the weak low-level shear, but MLCAPE values of greater
than 3500 J/kg will allow for ample stretching of vorticity along
the boundary. Storms should remain discrete at least for a period.
The very large MLCAPE values suggest there could be some stronger
downdrafts that may lead to some upscale growth into a cluster that
would propagate into the buoyancy axis in northeast Texas/southeast
Oklahoma.

..Wendt.. 05/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...

LAT...LON   31359813 32899735 35089617 36199547 36509515 36409439
            36199404 35599368 35119394 31699579 30899645 30569749
            30709809 31359813