Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 220318
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1018 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A mid level trough pushing into TX is resulting in clouds across
the Mid-South. Some weak WAA is producing a few sprinkles as temps
range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. The trough will track across
the Lower MS Valley on Friday spreading rain across areas mainly
along and south of I-40.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

The rest of today will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies with
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Rain chances return to the Mid-
South tomorrow, with cooler and drier conditions on Saturday. A
warming trend will begin on Sunday ahead of the next cold front.
This front is expected to bring heavy rainfall and possibly
severe weather to the Mid-South late Monday into Tuesday. Milder
high temperatures and cooler low temperatures will prevail
thereafter prior to a warming trend starting on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Currently, the Mid-South remains in a quasi-zonal mid/upper level
flow pattern and is currently on the north side of a stationary
surface frontal boundary. A mid/upper level trough is forecast to
continue moving eastward toward the Mid-South in tandem with a
larger swath of cyclonic flow to the north. Mid-level ridging
preceding this shortwave will encourage the aforementioned cold
front to lift north as a warm front across the region on Friday.
The approaching disturbances also appear to induce a couple of
surface cyclones, one across the northern/central Plains and the
other along the southeastern TX coast. Showers and thunderstorms
appear likely during the day on Friday on the northern and
backside of the southern stream surface low pressure, resulting in
elevated rain chances (60-70%) across a majority of the Mid-
South. Rain chances are expected to remain elevated through at
least Saturday morning as a cold front, associated with the
northern stream disturbance, pushes through the Mid-South. After
the frontal passage, high temperatures on Saturday will be mild,
reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s area wide.

By Sunday, a large mid/upper level disturbance is forecast to
move into the southwestern United States. A surface cyclone is
expected to develop near OK/TX/CO/NM ahead of an ejecting
shortwave perturbation associated with the larger trough. A warm
front extending from the surface low, part of which was the prior
cold front that moved through the Mid-South, will eventually lift
north across the region. Surface dewpoints are expected to reach
the upper 50s to lower 60s ahead of an eastward moving cold front
by Monday afternoon/evening. The SPC has outlined the Mid-South
in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on
Monday, although confidence in severe potential remains low.
Forecast soundings from deterministic global models on Monday
evening continue to show lackluster thermodynamics coupled with
rather impressive kinematics. Probabilistic ensemble guidance also
appears unsupportive of this severe potential.

On Tuesday, some guidance develops a second surface low ahead of
another ejecting shortwave disturbance originating from a broad
area of cyclonic flow. Should this occur rain chances may remain
elevated throughout the day on Tuesday until the cold front pushes
through the Mid-South. Forecast soundings ahead of this system
appear to suggest thermodynamics may be better, which could
indicate Tuesday might be a better day for severe weather. Despite
current uncertainty, severe potential with both of these
situations will be closely monitored, so be sure to check back for
updates. Regardless of the severe threat it does appear more
certain that locally heavy rainfall is possible starting Monday
with 1-2 inches of rainfall being forecast.

The cold front is slated to move through the Mid-South later on
Tuesday, resulting in milder high temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday and chilly low temperature on Tuesday and Wednesday
night. A rebound of warmer temperature is expected to occur
starting on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A stationary front is stretched across north Mississippi and
southeast Arkansas resulting in a few WAA showers across the
region. These showers most likely will only reach JBR, and QPF is
negligible. A low pressure system continues to approach the area
with increasing cloud coverage spreading across the area. There
remains uncertainty in MVFR/IFR CIG development and northern
extent. The low continues to track more southerly limiting
northern shower reach. Confidence in this forecast remains
limited beginning tomorrow afternoon. Will continue to monitor
latest trends.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM


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