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000
FXUS62 KMHX 212227
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
627 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue to move away from the
coast tonight. High pressure briefly builds into the area early
next week followed by a cold front with limited moisture
pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back
into the area for the latter half of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Sun...Sfc low east of Hatteras will continue to
move away from the coast tonight, while trailing cold front and
shortwave aloft grad slide off the SE coast. The shortwave will
continue to lift northeast through this evening, with low- mid
level frontogenesis and modest jet exit region dynamics
interacting with a deep layer of moisture in place. Light to
occasionally moderate rain beginning to fill back in, likely to
continue for the next few hours. Guidance may be a little
aggressive with ending the precip this evening, so I slowed the
departure a bit compared to the previous forecast. Eventually,
gradual drying aloft should support a west to east decrease in
the steadier precip. However, with the main upper level trough
axis still to the west, and with lingering moisture, I`m not
convinced yet that the rain will end for the whole area, so I`ve
continue to hold onto a mention through the night, especially
east of HWY 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...An upper level trough will pivot east
through the Carolinas on Monday. At the surface, low pressure
off the coast will deepen thanks to increasing height falls
aloft. While the pressure gradient will relax some tonight, the
deepening low will act to increase the gradient for a time on
Monday, with a bit of an uptick in northerly winds expected. 12z
model guidance has trended up with winds on Monday, especially
along the coast, and I reflected this trend in the forecast.

Regarding precip, the better, and deeper, moisture is forecast
to shift offshore on Monday, but until the upper low clears the
coast, I expect at least a low-end chance (20-30%) of showers to
continue, especially along the coast. Temperatures on Monday
are expected to be well below normal for late-April, especially
where clouds linger the longest. Along the coast, highs will
struggle to get out of the 50s. Inland, some breaks in the
clouds may allow highs to get into the low 60s, but this will
still be 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM Sunday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry
front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting
up to our and north through the weekend.

Tuesday...Clear skies and calm winds bring bring lows near 40
inland Tuesday morning. Along the coast lows are a bit higher,
in the low 50s, as the gradient is pinched a bit more there with
the high building from the west and and the low offshore to the
east. This might be enough to prevent true decoupling due to
radiational cooling. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday,
with highs near 60 inland, mid 60s for beaches.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure
gradient with the high to our south. This looks to prevent
decoupling Wednesday morning, leaving lows in the mid to upper
40s to start the day inland. Along the coast lows will be in the
mid 50s. High pressure moves offshore through the day Wednesday
with the help of a weak cold front associated with the sweeping
low. This will cause winds to veer from southerly to northerly
through the day. Atmospheric column looks to be fairly dry
during the weak cold front passage, preventing the inclusion of
mentionable PoPs for Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the
gustiest day in the long term, with ample mixing allowing gusts
of 20kts inland. Fortunately RHs will be well above 35%, so fire
weather should not be a concern. Highs look to be in the mid to
upper 70s inland, near 70 for the coast, aided by the south
veering west flow through the day.

Thursday to Saturday...High pressure to our north keeps us dry,
with high temps incrementally increasing each day. Into the
weekend, omega block setup initiates at upper levels. This will
allow the high pressure to linger through the remainder of the
long term. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will
encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on
if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will
give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of
precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high
offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. Currently
have Schc PoPs for extreme western and northern portions of the
CWA Saturday PM to cover this.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 630 PM Sun...Currently a mix of IFR and MVFR at the
terminals early this evening with widespread light rain and
drizzle. Sub-VFR cigs, likely IFR, expected through 6z with cigs
slowly improving from north to south early Mon morning. Mostly
VFR is expected on Monday, although a mix of VFR/MVFR appears
plausible along the coast, along with a continued risk of light
rain.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...Improving conditions will continue with
pred VFR through Thursday. Decoupling Monday night/Tuesday
morning inland could bring a fog threat, but too much
uncertainty exists for anything other a brief mention in this
AFD. Thursday could bring some lower cloud cover as low level
moisture increases a tad, but again, too much uncertainty on
cloud base height and coverage at this point.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 630 PM Sun...Latest obs show N-NE winds 15-25 kt gusting
to 25-30 kt with seas 6-9 ft north of Ocracoke and 4-7 ft south.
These winds will continue into this evening, then lay down some
overnight. The winds will then increase once again on Monday as
the gradient tightens as low pressure further deepens. Guidance
has come in a bit stronger with the winds on Monday, and this
is reflected in the wind forecast. Because of this, both winds
and waves are expected to remain elevated for a longer period of
time, necessitating the extension of the SCAs for the coastal
waters. Seas may reach 8-10 ft by this evening, then slowly lay
down after that point. Widespread rain filling back in this
evening, with reductions to visibility down to as low as 3 miles
at times. The risk of thunderstorms appears low (<20% chance)
through tonight. Showers are expected to linger into Monday.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...As the coastal low strengthens offshore,
seas will be slow to drop below 6 ft for western portions of marine
zones, finally doing so on Tuesday. Seas remain 3-5 feet for
much of the coastal marine zones in the remainder of the long
term. Further offshore in western portions of the marine zones,
there will be multiple rounds of waves at 6-7 feet through the
long term. Winds will be below SCA criteria through the long
term.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/CQD
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/CQD/RJ
MARINE...RM/CQD/RJ