586
FXUS64 KMOB 151122 CCA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A bit of patchy morning mist reducing visibilities to generally 1 to
3 miles will quickly erode after sunrise. VFR conditions expected
today with a general light northwest wind. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

15.00Z upper air analysis shows axis of upper trough aligned over
the forecast area. A narrow zone of weak support/lift has been
enough to squeeze out a few showers/some rumbles of thunder over the
northeast zones during the early AM hours. Deep layer dry air is
beginning to overtake this zone and expect remainder of activity to
dissipate by sunrise. The upper trough lifts up across the
Appalachians today with short-wave upper ridging moving in over the
deep south. At the surface, a weak pressure trough slips southeast
over the eastern zones today and tonight followed by a weakly
reflected high moving eastward on Thursday. Despite the surface
trough, appears the deep layer dry air will take hold supporting a
rain-free Wednesday, continuing into Thursday before a fairly quick
ramp up in PoPs return going into the next period. There is some
indication in the short range ensembles, albeit a small probability
(~10%), of patchy fog development along the coastal zones late
tonight.

Daytime highs look to be well into the 80s the next couple days
with a few areas possibly reaching the 90 degree mark. Overnight
lows tonight range from 59 to 63 interior to 65 to 70 coast.

A High Risk of rip currents continues along area beaches today,
lowering to Moderate Thursday. /10

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The next storm system will move in from the west Thursday night
as an upper trough over the Great Plains shifts slowly eastward
with more rounds of shortwave energy traverse over our region
through the remainder of the week. Much of the model guidance is
also suggesting that a lead southern stream shortwave should eject
across our forecast area out ahead of the main approaching
mid/upper level trough. As this occurs, there is a fairly robust
signal in the ensemble probabilistic guidance that there will be a
surge of deep tropical moisture northward across the north
central Gulf Coast associated with a lifting warm front with the
air mass destabilizing rapidly along and south of the front by
Thursday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will spread eastward across the forecast area Thursday night as
several upper disturbances moving in the west-southwest flow
aloft brings a round of elevated convection.

Increased ascent along with deeper Gulf moisture returning in the
lower levels will resulting in an increase in showers/storms for
Friday to potentially bring high impact weather along the
northern Gulf Coast. There are indications of yet another heavy
rain event on Friday, and WPC has areas along and northwest of
I-65 in a Moderate Risk of flooding (4-6 inches possible) with a
Slight Risk to the southeast of I-65. As far as strong to
potentially severe storms, guidance points to Friday. All depends
on position of the warm-front late in the week, but at this
moment it appears SBCAPE values on Friday should be in the
1500-2000 J/Kg range along with marginal shear with Bulk Shear
values in the 45 to 55 knot range along with increasing lapse
rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/Km. This should support another round of
storms, some potentially severe, during this time period.

Storms may become increasingly surface based on Friday. This
would only help to increase the overall severe weather potential,
and SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather outlooked for the
western half of our CWA, and a Marginal Risk across the east.
There will be some uncertainty with respect to the overall
instability available for newly developing convection overnight
Friday night into Saturday morning. These details will not be
known until we get closer to the event and begin to see the
eventual evolution of storms associated with the lead shortwave.
Either way, conditions appear to be increasingly favorable for
some severe weather potential during the end of this week with
details to still be worked out over the coming forecast cycles.

Storm coverage may continue into Saturday as the upper trough
remain over the area and a potential boundary drapes across the
area. This again will be dependent upon the evolution of the
convection Friday night into Saturday morning and whether or not
the air mass can recover. Low temperatures Thursday night will
trend warmer to be 4 to 9 degrees above normal, ranging from
around 65 degrees well inland to the lower 70s along the coast.
High temps on Thursday will be around 3 degrees above normal in
the mid to upper 80s.

Along the beaches, a Moderate rip current on Thursday will
increase to High on Friday through the weekend. /22

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Upper level ridging should become re-established across the Gulf
Coast states by early next week and bring a return to dry weather
along with increasingly hot temperatures. Temperatures will be
about 3 to 7 degrees above normal, with highs ranging from 86 to
92 degrees and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Onshore flow returns and becomes well established by the end of
the week and into Saturday, resulting in a gradual build in seas
to a range of 3 to 6 ft. Marine weather to become more unsettled
by late in the week with approach of next weather maker. Winds,
waves, seas will be locally higher in and near storms. Visibility
likely to be reduced in heavier rains. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  64  88  70  86  71  86  68 /   0   0   0  30  70  60  60  10
Pensacola   87  67  86  73  84  73  83  70 /   0   0   0  20  60  60  70  20
Destin      84  70  85  73  83  73  82  72 /   0   0   0  10  60  60  80  30
Evergreen   87  61  89  66  85  68  86  65 /   0   0   0  30  80  70  70  20
Waynesboro  85  61  89  65  83  66  85  64 /   0   0   0  50  90  60  50  10
Camden      84  60  87  66  82  66  84  64 /   0   0   0  40  80  70  60  20
Crestview   88  61  90  66  86  69  84  65 /   0   0   0  20  70  60  80  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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