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000
FXUS63 KMPX 210403
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1103 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another Freeze Warning tonight for those outside the metro.
  The Twin Cities could see frost, however temperatures should
  remain warm enough such that a hard freeze is unlikely.

- Rain likely on Monday into early Tuesday, resulting in
  accumulations within a couple tenths of an inch.

- A more active pattern and larger system loom towards the end
  of the next week, however confidence in timing and impacts is
  low right now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Temperatures have struggled to rise through the mid afternoon thanks
to persistent cloud cover over much of the MPX CWA, with gradual
erosion from northwest to southeast allowing for filtered sunshine
to turn into full sunshine within the next few hours. Areas that
cleared out in western and central Minnesota have reached the mid
40s, with those stuck under the clouds in the mid 30s. Skies will
remain clear overnight with winds a bit weaker than the past few
nights, allowing for another chance for a hard freeze outside of the
metro and frost within the metro itself. Lows in the upper 20s to
near 30 are expected due to the clear skies and weaker winds outside
of the core urban areas, with near freezing to the mid 30s for the
urban core. This will be the last night of three consecutive
frost/freeze instances, with temperatures warming up over the next
few days ahead of our next rain bearing system. We could see another
chance at frost/freeze on Wednesday morning post fropa from the
early week system, however cloud cover and winds could still keep us
from dropping that far.

Looking ahead to the early week system, large scale ridging aloft
and surface high pressure will weaken and move eastwards on Sunday
with an occluded upper level trough drifting southeastwards from
Canada towards the Great Lakes. A surface low forming in response
will meander through Minnesota and into Wisconsin beginning Monday
afternoon before exiting with a weak cold front early Tuesday
morning. Forcing for ascent due to weak CVA ahead of the trough
coupled with a present but relatively weak 850mb LLJ south of the
front will likely be enough to produce rain showers across much of
the area. Moisture is lacking for any kind of stronger showers, with
instability also limited due to the weak forcing such that
thunderstorms are generally not expected to pose any kind of risk. A
few wrap around showers are possible as the system slides towards
the Great Lakes on Tuesday evening before fully departing by early
Wednesday. Overall rain amounts will range from less than a tenth of
an inch in western Minnesota to as much as two tenths for portions
of mainly eastern Minnesota to western Wisconsin. Cooler
temperatures on the heels of the departing system will once again
result in chances for frost/freeze depending on how strong the CAA
is behind the system, which right now looks to favor low to mid 30s
and a frost scenario.

A far more impressive looking system continues to remain present
within most model guidance, both deterministic and ensemble, for the
end of the week and into next weekend. Although the timing and
strength continue to differ such that a consensus has yet to be
fully reached, the fact that guidance has suggested and continues to
favor a stronger system somewhere in the region towards the end of
the week within multiple model runs and across many different
ensembles shows relatively high confidence in a more active pattern
setting up. Right now, the synoptics would favor something akin to a
Colorado Low sweeping northwards towards Iowa in a setup that would
result in severe weather along and south of the primary warm front
and cold conveyor belt driven cold core rain north of the warm
front. Given the trajectory favoring a low track through Iowa, this
would place our CWA within the cold conveyor belt region favored for
widespread rainfall but not necessarily any kind of severe weather.
We will continue to monitor as we move closer, and hopefully with
some consensus can have a better idea of specifics as we head
throughout next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions throughout. Expect west overnight, with gusts
near 20 kts developing again late morning on Sunday.

KMSP...No weather-related aviation concerns. Expect VFR
conditions with west overnight, with gusts near 20 kts
developing again late morning on Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR early, then chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 15-20G30kts.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA, then VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Sunday for Anoka-Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-
     Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Sunday for Hennepin-Ramsey.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Sunday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JRB