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000
FXUS63 KMPX 112027
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
327 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant warm up on track for this weekend with highs in the
70s and low 80s area wide.

- Soaking rain still expected next week with rainfall amounts of a
half inch or more with a return to normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Another afternoon of diurnal showers with an occasional rumble
of thunder is ongoing, with any more substantial rain over far
southeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin. A few reports of pea
sized hail have come out of some of the stronger cells. This
activity will diminish by sunset with clouds expected to clear
out overnight. Tomorrow will be drier with slightly warmer
temperatures, but the real warm up doesn`t arrive until
Saturday. Southerly flow will advect a wave of unseasonably warm
air across the region. While dew points will also climb, they
won`t be high enough to prevent RH values from falling into the
low 30s. This may lead to some elevated fire weather concerns
through the weekend. A very weak cold front will move through
overnight Saturday, turning winds back to the northwest for
Sunday, but temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday looks to be the warmest (hottest?) day of the period as the
ridge axis moves overhead. Temperatures along the Buffalo Ridge are
forecast to top out in the mid 80s with another day of upper 70s/low
80s elsewhere. Winds will begin to increase on Monday and turn
southeasterly ahead of a strengthening surface low across the
Central Plains. This system will be the focus for next week as it
looks to bring widespread rainfall and gusty winds to Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Rainfall totals of an inch or more are possible Tuesday
through Wednesday. Behind this system, temperatures will fall back
toward normal (mid 50s) through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Showers are ongoing across portions of southern Minnesota with
no direct impact to the TAF sites. Additional showers with
better coverage will develop this afternoon, especially MSP,
RNH, and EAU. I`ve kept out -SHRA at previously mentioned sites
as coverage is forecast to be scattered at best and confidence
remains low on any one shower impacting a site. Ceilings
remain in the low-VFR range before they scatter out this
evening. The likelihood of MVFR ceilings will be higher with
any showers that impact terminals. Northwesterly winds will
increase in the next few hours, with gusts developing at the
same time & increasing to 25 to 30 kts. Gusts may fall off
overnight but return by mid-morning on Friday at 20-25 kts.

KMSP...Isolated -SHRA still possible this afternoon that could
produce brief bouts of MVFR cig/vis. Ceilings remain in the
low-end VFR category until this evening when they scatter out
with VFR thru Friday morning. Northwesterly wind gusts around
25 kts are expected from through sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR bcmg MVFR. Chc -RA late. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BPH