Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
938 FXUS65 KMSO 110937 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 337 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 .DISCUSSION...High pressure will remain over western Montana and north central Idaho through Sunday, bringing warm and dry conditions to the region. In fact, many valley locations may eclipse the 80 degree mark by Sunday, producing the warmest temperatures of the year to date. Forecast models continue to show a weak disturbance moving through northwest Montana later this evening into Sunday morning. Most likely this will result mainly in cloud cover. However, a few showers will be possible, especially along the Continental Divide near Glacier National Park. Breezy conditions are anticipated by Monday as the high pressure system weakens slightly. Gusts to 25 mph look probable across much of the region, with an 80 to 90 percent chance of occurrence. Rising temperatures through the early part of this week will increase snow melt in the mountains, allowing for a rise in river levels. A shift from below average to above average stream flows is anticipated. Keep in mind that water is running cold and fast and take precautions for cold water safety if you are recreating. As the high pressure ridge flattens next week, temperatures will cool and the chance for showers will increase. Forecast models are still struggling with the forecast by mid next week, with around 30 percent of solutions leaning towards a colder/wet trough, another 30 percent showing the ridge of high pressure rebuilding, and the other 40 percent leaning towards flatter westerly flow with near normal temperatures and breezy winds. && .AVIATION...High pressure will bring fair weather to the Northern Rockies airspace today and through most of the weekend. Expect mostly clear skies with light and variable winds today and tonight. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$