484
FXUS66 KMTR 191835
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1135 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist through the weekend with
gradual warming trend for the first half of the upcoming week.
Nighttime low clouds will spread inland and then retreat back to the
coast by mid-to-late morning each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Sky conditions are already improving over the North Bay at this hour
and will soon clear over the Central Coast by mid-to-late morning.
The HRRR has clouds dissipating even out over the ocean by late
afternoon. As such, expecting slightly warmer temperatures today
with afternoon highs in the mid 70`s to lower 80`s across the
interior with upper 50`s to near 70 degrees at the coast. No updates
are anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight`s stratus coverage is not as extensive as previous nights
with patchier stratus inland and more widespread stratus along the
coastline. Stratus is expected to clear out by mid-morning
throughout the Bay Area. Confidence in the timing of stratus
dissipation along the Central Coast is a little lower with, as
discussed in the previous AFD, models are not handling the current
setup well. The most likely scenario is stratus will briefly break
up during the afternoon along the coast before overcast conditions
return by the late evening. Slight upper level troughing and gusty
conditions over the coastal waters will keep the marine layer more
mixed and keep stratus confined closer to the coast.

Inland temperatures today will be fairly seasonal while temperatures
along the coast will be seasonal to slightly below average due to
stratus coverage limiting surface warming. Inland highs will reach
the upper 70s to low 80s while coastal highs stay in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Some potential (generally 5-10% chance) for coastal
drizzle tonight from Santa Cruz to the Big Sur coastline but minimal
to no accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with
temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by
Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less
impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the
coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the
warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread
temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to
spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas
Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive
to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink
plenty of water.

By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther
south into California with an associated surface low passing through
the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread
below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs
will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper
50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning
below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our
region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards
of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR across the region this afternoon as stratus continues to recede
away to the coastline. Winds generally westerly and around 12-15
knots sustained this afternoon, with coastal terminals seeing
occasional gusts around the 20 kt mark. Tonight, most terminals
are forecast to remain clear and VFR with the exception of
Monterey Bay who is likely to see MVFR CIGs from stratus. However,
confidence on maintaining VFR into the night is only moderate as
short term models the last few days have not seemed to handle
changing conditions and stratus cover well. Troughing and breezier
winds should deepen the marine layer and keep it well mixed,
therefore limiting the extent of stratus coverage. Highest
confidence is in far inland terminals remaining VFR through the
TAF period, with moderate confidence on coastal terminals
maintaining VFR and just seeing FEW-SCT low clouds.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Moderate and gusty W/NW winds this afternoon persist through the
evening, slowly weakening into the night to become light in the
first hours of Monday. As winds weaken, FEW low clouds may develop
over the terminal, but not expecting a CIG. Breezy onshore winds
return in the afternoon of Monday.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Stratus continues to hang over the
terminal, though satellite continues to show the cloud deck receding
to the coast line. Come the early afternoon, VFR conditions are
likely to return, with winds increasing to become breezy. Occasional
gusts nearing the 20 kt mark are expected. Stratus makes a return in
the evening beyond sunset, with MVFR CIGs forming. MVFR then lasts
through the late morning of Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Strong northerly winds continue, with gale force gusts expected
over much of the waters today and Monday. Expect hazardous
conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds
throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that
winds are expected to ease.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea