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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250517
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
117 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds in overnight through Friday, and
then slowly gives way to a warm front that moves through the
area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Weak high pressure
briefly follows through Monday. A cold front will then approach
on Tuesday, passing Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Updated for current conditions.

Based on latest obs/trends, readings across the area are
currently a few degrees warmer than forecast. There is
uncertainty whether the cold advection overnight and diminishing
winds will be able to offset these trends sufficiently to get
as low as forecast. Have raised temps a couple of degrees in
spots, but will maintain freeze warnings across the interior for
temps dropping to around freezing.

Some mid level cloudiness may linger near the coast overnight,
otherwise high pressure builds in from northwest. Winds will
slowly diminish, especially across the interior. The combination
of a colder airmass and diminishing winds will result in lows
overnight about 10 degrees below normal. Much of the interior
will drop to around of just below the freezing mark. Coastal
locations will drop to about 35 to 40. Frost does not look like
a concern with a large dew point/temperature spread, but perhaps
patchy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and cool conditions continue for Thursday as the strong Canadian
high pressure continues to build in from the northwest and an upper
level trough sets up across the Northeast then pushes east later in
the day. An upper level ridge over the mid-West amplifies and slowly
heads east Thursday night through Saturday with the ridge axis
just moving over the area late in the day Saturday into Saturday
night.

As previously mentioned, cool conditions continue Thursday. Some
modification in the air mass expected for Friday, but it should
remain seasonably cool. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle
to upper 50s, then upper 50s to lower 60s for Friday.

Slightly colder temperatures are expected Thursday night as
compared to tonight with clear skies and calmer winds.
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 20s across the
interior and Pine Barrens of Long Island. Will have to monitor
for potential of Frost Advisory/Freeze Watch for these areas
with the subsequent forecast overnight tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not much has changed with regards to the long-term forecast. An
omega block over the eastern CONUS will be a predominate feature
through the weekend and early next week, with its western leg over
the central states and multiple shortwaves lifting NE through the
Plains states and upper Great Lakes, its eastern leg over the
Canadian Maritimes and adjacent Atlantic, and an upper ridge over
the East.

The first of the shortwaves lifting through the Plains and
Great Lakes will send a warm front toward the area Sat night that
should then lift through on Sunday, with low chance for showers
mainly inland. A warming trend will then follow, with temps well
above normal especially from the NYC metro area north/west, with
highs well into the lower/mid 70s on Sunday and either side of 80 on
Mon. Most of Long Island and SE CT should be cooler, with highs in
the 60s, to low-70s on Mon, due to onshore flow and afternoon sea
breezes, also some intrusion of cooler maritime air from the east
depending on the position and intensity of low pressure developing
well to the east over the Atlantic.

The omega block should start to break down on Tue, with the upper
ridge weakening and a cold front approaching from the west, bringing
the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms as moisture
increases ahead of it, particularly as it moves through early on
Wednesday. Temps on Tue should continue to be on the mild side, with
highs in the 60s across much of S CT/Long Island, and in the 70s
across the NYC metro area north/west and interior S CT.

Per NBM 50th/75th percentile forecasts, temps early next week have
potential to be a few degrees warmer than fcst, possibly upper 70s
to mid 80s on Mon, and mid 70s to lower 80s on Tue, depending on
both the strength of the ridge and onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong high pressure will build in through the end of the week.

VFR. NW winds at 10-15kt G20-25kt will veer to the N tonight
and then NE early Thursday morning. Gusts may be more occasional
than frequent. Winds and gusts will then diminish overnight
with wind speeds around 10 kt or less by daybreak Thursday.
Winds on Thursday will veer around to the S/SE.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts could become occasional and/or end 1-3 hours earlier
tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night-Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance for showers with brief MVFR
conditions Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Coastal Waters Forecast with wave component details is
operational.

Winds and gusts have been running lower than forecast, and based
on latest guidance have trended lower with both into Thursday
morning. Will leave the SCA in place and re evaluate with the
forecast issuance later this morning.

With building high pressure, winds and gusts gradually diminish
below advisory levels by late tonight. Ocean seas will remain
elevated into Thursday morning, and then subside below 5 feet. A
SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters until 1000 AM EDT
Thursday. With a weak pressure gradient later Thursday through
Friday night, with high pressure in control, winds and seas will
remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters.

Quiet this weekend into early next week with winds/seas below
advisory criteria. S-SW flow up to 15 kt after a warm frontal
passage could briefly push ocean seas up to 4 ft late day Sunday
into Sunday evening. Fog may also become possible Sunday night as
more humid air traverses colder waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/BR/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR