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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161216
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
716 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon and tonight.

- Unseasonably warm weather continues through Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday afternoon
  through Thursday night.

- Much cooler Friday through the weekend, with possibly some
  lingering small chances of showers and storms Friday into
  Saturday, especially south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Latest surface map shows a frontal boundary just north of the
PAH forecast area, extending from a surface low over western
Nebraska. With our area in the warm sector, a shower or two will
be possible this morning. By this afternoon into tonight, the
surface low will move eastward, dragging a cold front toward the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Ahead of the cold
front, models develop numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms, with convection spreading into all but our far
eastern counties this afternoon, then across our entire region
this evening. Models continue to show MU CAPE values in the
1000-2000 J/kg range in our far western counties this afternoon,
and across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this evening
with dew points in the lower to middle 60s. SPC Day 1 has
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois in a Slight Risk, with
the rest of the PAH forecast area in a Marginal Risk. By 12z
Wednesday, the front will still be making its way through our
counties, and SPC Day 2 includes southwest Indiana in a Slight
Risk, with portions of west Kentucky and southeast Illinois in a
Marginal Risk as showers and storms linger into Wednesday
morning.

We will see mainly dry conditions Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. By Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, models bring
a surface low and associated cold front from the Central Plains
through the PAH forecast area. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms can again be expected with this system, and with
its approach and passage during the heat of the day and dew
points still in the lower 60s, SPC Day 3 included our entire
area in a Slight Risk.

Small chances of showers and storms may linger into Friday and
Saturday, especially south, as some models show the cold front
lingering just south of our region. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty overall, and the front may move far enough south to
pretty much keep our entire area dry from Saturday onward.
Models are in good agreement building in high pressure for
early next week.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through Thursday. We
will then see a significant cool down by Friday, then especially
over the weekend. Highs today through Thursday will be in the
upper 70s to middle 80s, then by Friday only in the middle 60s
to around 70s degrees. Highs over the weekend will be in the
lower to middle 60s, with a warming trend beginning Monday. Our
coolest night through the forecast period will be Sunday
night, when readings will range from the upper 30s north and
west, to the lower 40s across the rest of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 716 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions expected through 23z as south winds increase to
15-20kts with gusts of 26-31kts, with the higher gusts at
KCGI/KPAH. Gusty winds will continue into the overnight hours.
Isolated shra/tsra possible after 18z, then numerous
shra/scattered tsra will spread from west to east across TAF
sites between 23z-04z. Convection will be accompanied by MVFR
conditions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RST
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST