Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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157 FXUS65 KPSR 041800 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1100 AM MST Sat May 4 2024 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... After another day of above normal temperatures today, a weather system passing by to the north will help to bring cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week. The system will also lead to widespread breezy to windy conditions today across southeast California and areawide on Sunday. Dry weather will persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the low 90s by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal for one more day ahead of an approaching Pacific low now moving into northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Expect highs today very similar to yesterday with readings mostly topping out in the lower 90s across the lower deserts to as high as 95 degrees. The approaching weather system will also increase the gradient across the western deserts by this afternoon leading to increasing winds and wind gusts likely reaching advisory level (40 mph) over portions of southeast California by late this afternoon. As the Pacific low moves inland across northern California into northern Nevada tonight, it will start to weaken while also bringing in some high level cloudiness through the Desert Southwest. A dry cold front is also forecast to move through southern California by Sunday morning with the front attempting to move through much of Arizona, but it will likely somewhat wash out as the system continues to weaken as it moves through Utah and northern Arizona. Cooler temperatures will be realized on Sunday, especially over the western deserts where readings will only top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, but the Phoenix area will still easily reach into the mid 80s. Windy conditions will also impact the region areawide on Sunday with gusts across the Arizona lower deserts mostly between 30-35 mph to as high as 40-45 mph across southeast California and over portions of the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. The weather pattern for a good portion of next week should see a large trough set up from the Plains States through the Pacific Northwest with the southern fringe of the trough setting up over our region. This will allow for several days of seasonably dry westerly zonal flow over the Desert Southwest with heights aloft hovering near seasonal averages. As a result, temperatures will recover fairly slow into next week, eventually warming back into the normal range by around Tuesday or Wednesday. NBM forecast temperatures show highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s from Tuesday through Thursday before warming a bit more by next weekend as ensemble guidance shows a ridge potentially building in from the west. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1759Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Light winds will persist through the remainder of the morning before veering toward the west this afternoon with some afternoon breezes gusting upwards of 15-20 kts. Westerly winds will weaken this evening but will persist into the overnight hours before making a shift to the southeast after midnight. West to southwest winds then resume Sunday morning around 16Z with speeds increasing. FEW- SCT high clouds around 20 kft will pass over the region throughout the period with lower bases to around 10 kft expected Sunday afternoon as a cold front pushes through south-central Arizona. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will be the primary aviation weather concern through the TAF period. Strong westerly winds at KIPL and southwesterly winds at KBLH will increase through the afternoon and evening. Winds will be strongest at KIPL where gusts this afternoon will climb upwards of 25-35 kts with gusts expected to exceed 35 kts at times this evening. Meanwhile at KBLH, winds won`t be as strong but will see gusts to around 25-30 kts through the evening before weakening. Strong winds will promote the potential for some lofted blowing dust, which could lead to surface/slantwise visibility reductions. Wind speeds will remain elevated through the overnight period before increasing again Sunday morning as a cold front passes through the region. Otherwise, expect to see fluctuating coverage of high clouds throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system moving just to the north this weekend will bring breezy to windy conditions focused more during the afternoon and evening hours along with cooler conditions starting Sunday. Wind gusts above 30 mph are likely today across much of the western districts and then areawide on Sunday. The strong winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions over much of the area this weekend. Min RHs through the weekend will be around 10-20%, while overnight Max RHs will be around 30-60% for most areas. For next week, weak high pressure will remain over the region allowing for temperatures returning to slightly above normal, while seasonably dry conditions persist. Lighter winds are expected by Monday, but some afternoon breeziness can be expected during the first part of next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ560. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ563>567. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman