Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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655 FXUS65 KPUB 070526 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1126 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong and gusty winds will continue to weaken slightly going into the evening hours, but then increase tomorrow morning and could reach to near High Wind Warning criteria for some locations. - Critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early evening hours for the San Luis Valley and portions of the plains. These conditions are expected to return again tomorrow afternoon and possibly Wednesday. - A few showers, and high elevation snow showers, will be possible over locations mainly north of Highway 50. - Temperatures at or just below freezing are possible across El Paso county Tuesday night. - Cooler and wetter weather is expected by the end of the week into the weekend, along with the possibility for accumulating snow across the higher terrain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 With increasing humidity values and overall decreasing winds, critical fire weather conditions are no longer expected for this evening. Given this, the Red Flag Warning for today has been allowed to expire. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 239 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Currently and through tonight... Very strong and gusty winds due to a post-frontal density current and deep mixing will continue to slightly weaken going into the evening hours for most areas as winds begin to decouple, although likely remaining quite strong across the highest elevations due to stronger winds aloft. There Critical fire weather conditions currently for the San Luis Valley, and portions of the plains where fuels are still critical, should subside by early this evening as winds begin to decouple and RH values recover above the 15 percent threshold. There could still be some areas reaching close to High Wind Warning criteria for the next couple of hours, although not expecting to this to persist and be widespread. There could still be some areas of blowing dust through the early evening hours, mainly over the eastern plains. A few showers will continue to be possible for the central mountains, although these should be light and brief, with little in the way of additional accumulations expected. Although, there could still be some temporarily reduce visibilities, especially through the passes, due to blowing snow. Low temps will be quite modified and not as cold for lower elevations, due to mixing, yet they will be cooler than the previous night because of colder air advection in Tomorrow... Stronger winds are going to return by early tomorrow morning, shortly after sunrise when winds begin to mix down from the 700 mb level. Confidence is still lacking with there being widespread areas of High Wind Warning criteria, given that x-sections show only forward shear as being the driving force, and little in the way of any mountain wave action. The only way this is likely to be achieved is if there is a sufficient amount of deep layer mixing and 700 mb winds which are forecast to exceed 50 kts, makes it down to the surface. Higher terrain is also questionable, as most locations remain right on the cusp of High Wind Warning criteria. Nevertheless, severe crosswinds are still possible, especially over portions of the southern I-25 corridor. For this reason, I have issued a High Wind Warning for tomorrow, which covers all of the areas most vulnerable to the potential for high wind criteria occurrence. There could also be some areas of blowing dust, especially shortly after sunrise when soils are initially lifted. There will be some snow showers with blowing snow over the central mountains, with additional snow amounts of a few inches possible, especially for the western facing slopes of the northern Sawatch and Mosquito ranges. There could be some temporary reduced visibilities due to blowing snow, especially for the Cottonwood and Fremont passes. In addition, to the strong winds, there will be low RH values for the San Luis Valley (SLV) and plains. Due to this, critical fire weather conditions are expected for the SLV, as well as portions of the plains where fuels are still critical. -Stewey && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 239 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Large upper low situated across the central CONUS will continue to influence the weather across the area during the mid week time frame. Trough and jet axis do begin to dip south Tuesday night into Wednesday, helping to end any snow development across the central mountains and also providing a diminishing trend with the winds. With this diminishing trend along with a cooler air mass filtering in, will see temperatures fall into the 30s across the plains. Temperatures do look to drop to or just below freezing across El Paso county and with higher confidence in place, have opted to issue a Freeze Watch. Elsewhere across the plains, temps should stay above freezing, and where winds really drop off, frost could develop. Will keep an eye on trends and the possible need for additional freeze/frost headlines. While winds will not be as strong on Wednesday, they will still be gusty in some locations. These winds along with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s and RH values in the 10 to 15 percent range, will see another day of high fire danger. The current Fire Weather Watch on Wednesday for the San Luis Valley, southeast mountains, and portions of the plains still looks to be on track at this time. By late Wednesday into Thursday, will likely see another low take shape across the region, which will then slowly meander back west/southwest through the end of the work week. This system will bring some complexity to the forecast, especially into the start of the weekend, with some lower confidence on exact trends. That being said, cooler temperatures with increasing precip chances will be the main trend during this time. At this time, highest precip chances will be over the mountains, where there are increasing chances for accumulating snow. Once again, do have lower confidence in place, but will need to monitor the potential for some impacts across the higher terrain along with the need for possible winter weather headlines. Other locations over the lower terrain, mainly along and west of I-25, will likely see periods of rain showers along with a few thunderstorms. For the remainder of the weekend into early next week, should see this upper low slowly shift to the south with precip chances lowering and temperatures warming. It`s quite possible that it takes a slower track and if so, will see continued precip chances and cooler temperatures for southern Colorado. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1124 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Strong west winds will persist across the area, with some LLWS possible at KALS and KCOS through 09Z. Winds overnight will stay around 15-20 knots, with gusts to 30 knots setting in around 12Z. By 18Z, winds will increase, hitting their maximums during the mid-afternoon hours. All three TAF sites will approach 45-50 knots for several hours, staying gusty through the end of the period but starting to weaken after 00Z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224-225- 232-233-237. High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for COZ069>075-077>080-083-086>088. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ224-225-232-233. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ084-085. && $$ UPDATE...SIMCOE SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...EHR