599
FXUS65 KPUB 080328
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
928 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Fire Danger will return to the San Luis Valley and
  portions of the southeast plains on Wednesday.

- Light snow will continue across the central mountains
  overnight into Wednesday

- Unsettled weather pattern starting Thursday, and lasting
  through the weekend with light to moderate snow accumulations
  possible for the higher mountains through Friday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Updated package to allow the Winter Weather Advisory for the
central mountains to expire and to end the Red Flag Warning
across southern CO for the remainder of the evening. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Winds are gradually decreasing across the area and have let high
wind warnings come down across the San Luis Valley, Southeast
mountains and southern I-25 corridor for the remainder of the
evening. Otherwise, westerly flow aloft and instability have
kept snow showers going across the central mountains though
coverage has decreased. Will let Winter Weather Advisories
continue for a few more hours this evening. Models show a
diminishing trend with snow confined to north of Cottonwood Pass
through the overnight hours. May need to monitor trends to see
if a brief extension of advisories is needed through midnight.

Otherwise, a hard Freeze is expected across northern El Paso
county. Have added southern El Paso county to a frost advisory
where temperatures between 30 and 35 degrees could produce
patchy frost or a light freeze to some locations.

Strong westerly flow will remain over the area on Wednesday
bringing an increase in winds again across southern portions of
the area in the morning. Red Flag Warnings were upgraded with
the afternoon package for the San Luis Valley, with portions of
the southeast plains remaining in a Fire Weather Watch. Will
likely upgrade these to a Red Flag Warning as dew points dry out
behind the front and gusty winds in the morning may bring a
quick return to critical fire weather conditions before the wind
gusts relax some in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Upper low takes shape across the Great Basin as more energy digs
westward. Cold front drops through the plains Wednesday night
with upslope and gradual moistening expected along the eastern
slopes of the southeast mountains. Lift from broad overrunning
develops overtop the front through the day on Thursday with
rain and snow showers increasing and spreading westward through
Friday as the upper low drops southward through southern
UT/northern AZ. May end up needing some advisories for
elevations above 9000 feet where mountain passes could see some
travel impacts. Heaviest snow looks to fall Thursday afternoon
and night though Friday will remain unsettled as the system
hangs out across the southern UT/northern AZ through Saturday.
Convectively enhanced rain and snow showers will redevelop
Friday and again on Saturday which could bring some pockets of
moderate snowfall to the higher elevations in the afternoon.

Uncertainty grows in the longer ranges with how quickly this
upper low ejects. EC maintains the upper low across CO into
early next week though the flow aloft weakens as the upper low
fills and sags southward on Tuesday. This would keep daily
showers across the mountains as convective instability
regenerates activity each afternoon and evening. Overall though
QPF looks light. GFS ejects the system more quickly with drier
weather returning by Sunday but another system is poised to
drop in from the northwest on Wednesday. Overall temperatures
will remain mild with daily showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains each day through the remainder of the extended.

Fire weather risks will decrease significantly after Wednesday
with the cooler conditions, lighter winds and daily
precipitation chances in and near the mountains. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Strong, gusty winds will continue at all three terminals into
this evening, with winds starting to weaken after 03Z. Winds
overnight will mainly stay westerly, remaining around 10-15 knots as
skies clear across most of the area. Winds may be gusty to 25 knots
at KPUB tomorrow 18Z and after, while KCOS and KALS remain around 15
knots through the end of this forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ224-
232-233.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ084.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ085.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO