Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Reno, NV
000
FXUS65 KREV 122022
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
122 PM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, wetter, and more windy weather pattern has returned for the
weekend as a storm treks through the Sierra and western Nevada. Plan
on periods of rain and snow showers, even some lightning, as well as
winds and much cooler temperatures through early next week. Dry and
more typical temperatures will return mid to late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Our next storm for the weekend is slowly trekking towards the
California coastline this afternoon and in the process will kick off
some gusty winds, rain/snow showers as well as thunderstorms through
the weekend.
- No significant changes were made to the forecast today. See latest
wind advisories and lake wind advisories.
Current Conditions as of 1pm:
* Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across northern
California this afternoon. Per latest HREF guidance a few stronger
thunderstorm cells may develop, especially for areas north of a
line from Susanville to Lovelock today. With temperatures expected
to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s with MLCAPE around 250 to
500 J/kg by later this afternoon and 25 to 30 knots of effective
shear it should be enough for a few organized storms this
afternoon. Forecast soundings show very deep mixing (to near
500mb) which will support some severe wind threat.
* Winds are trending up across the Sierra ridges this afternoon with
some breezes already mixed down into the lower valley areas.
Sierra ridge wind gusts already in the 55 to 70 mph range with
valley wind gusts 25 to 35 mph. Winds will continue to increase
overnight into Saturday ahead of the main front passage. Aviation
impacts will continue overnight into Saturday as well with reports
of turbulence already this afternoon.
Weekend Forecast:
Winds:
* Sierra crest wind gusts peak around 60-80 mph and begin to taper
by late Saturday afternoon. For the lower valleys, widespread S-SW
wind gusts 30-40 mph will continue and then ramp up for Saturday.
By Saturday afternoon, stronger S-SE winds develop across Mineral,
Pershing, and portions of S. Mono County along US-6.
* Wind gusts upwards of 40-60 mph are possible in western NV and
eastern Sierra areas may result in crosswind hazards for high
profile vehicles, especially along US-95 near Walker Lake. Watch
out for areas of blowing dust downwind of dry lake beds/desert
sink areas along portions of US-50 and I-80. Otherwise plan on
intermittent impacts to outdoor recreation including rough lake
waters through late Saturday evening.
Precipitation and Thunderstorm Chances:
* Saturday will be the peak day for chances at rain and snow showers
with 80-90% chances for showers across the Sierra and 40-60%
chances for far western Nevada. The thunderstorm potential sticks
around as well, welcome to Spring storm fun, with the best
instability north of Highway 50 in Wrn NV, Lassen, and Plumas
counties. Snow levels will start to drop down from 8500 feet on
Friday to near 6000-7000 feet Saturday afternoon. Plan on some
slow down across Sierra passes with a few inches of accumulation
possible through the weekend.
* Sunday: Snow levels drop even more (to around 4000-5000`) with
snow showers possible as a precipitation band sweeps through the
Sierra and western Nevada behind the low center. Can`t rule out an
additional 1-3" along the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin northward
into Lassen and far northern Washoe counties. Stronger cells may
produce locally higher snow totals up to 5".
For the most part, precipitation potential drops off by Monday as
the storm exits eastward. There is a trend for drier conditions
next week as another shortwave approaches, but it looks to stay
north of the area.
-Edan
&&
.AVIATION...
* Strong and gusty winds are producing mountain wave turbulence and
LLWS this afternoon. Surface winds will increase and peak during
the afternoon/evening hours today and Saturday with widespread
gusts 25-35 kts, locally stronger to 40 kts.
* On Saturday winds will vary between SE-SW through midday, but
there will be a notable shift to the west along the Hwy 395/I-580
corridor by mid afternoon and across much of western NV by
Saturday evening as the front surges through. Stronger wind gusts
will be possibles for KHTH-KNFL-KLOL with S-SE wind gusts in
excess of 50kt possible. Areas of blowing dust across western
Nevada may reduce visibility below 1SM at times.
* Plan on Isolated-scattered showers from the Sierra and Reno-
Carson City area northward through this evening. There will more
widespread shower potential on Saturday. There is a 10-30% chance
of thunder each day, focused along the Sierra, far western NV and
areas north of I-80.
* Snow levels will remain above most terminals although they could
dip briefly to Sierra terminal elevations in heavier showers.
Expect periods of terrain obscuration and MVFR conditions in rain
showers for Sierra sites and brief mountain top obscuration and
MVFR conditions at lower elevations, especially along and behind
the front Saturday.
Fuentes/Edan
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight NVZ002.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ001-004.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight CAZ072.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ073.
&&
$$