888
FXUS61 KRNK 200014
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
814 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep our area mostly dry through Wednesday.
A frontal system approaches late in the week to bring the next
chance for rain. Temperatures will warm through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Isolated mountain showers this evening.

2) Dry Monday.

High pressure is becoming established across the region...wind
fields light. Shallow lingering moisture over the mountains is
resulting in a few isolated showers, otherwise no precipitation
expected, although do think there will be lingering low level
cloudiness with potential for late night fog and stratus.

In general, expecting dry weather Monday with morning clouds
and afternoon sunshine. Subsidence from high pressure should
keep showers to a minimum with a multi-day stretch...at least
the first half of the week...of dry weather supportive of hay
making for farmers that wish to harvest a few acres before the
next wet spell sets in for the end of the week.

Afternoon temperatures Monday are expected to be in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather for most through the period.
2. Temperatures warming to above normal.

The beginning of the work week will feature 500mb ridging over the
southeastern US, and surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic,
which will keep the weather dry for most of the area through at
least Wednesday. A weak upper shortwave crossing the area may
generate some showers and possible storms in the mountains on
Tuesday afternoon and evening, but coverage will be isolated to
scattered.

By Tuesday, an upper trough develops over the Rockies, and a surface
low will track northeastward through the central US and into the
upper Midwest by the midweek. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front
will bring warmer and more moist air into the region, thus Wednesday
looks to be the warmest day of the short term forecast period, as
high temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms possible Thursday and Friday.
2. Temperatures near to above normal.

A surface low will move into southeastern Canada by the second half
of the work week. A trailing cold front will extend from this low
across the country, and track eastward, approaching the Mid Atlantic
by Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as the
front approaches and then crosses the area through Thursday. The
front remains to the south across the Carolinas through Friday,
although some long range deterministic models differ on where the
front will stall. Another piece of shortwave energy aloft moves
along the front will spark some showers and thunderstorms as it
reaches the area late Friday into Saturday. High pressure builds
back in over the region behind the front, bringing an end to the
precipitation, keeping Sunday mostly dry.

Clouds and rain will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on
Thursday and Friday, but gradually warming again over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

Period of VFR this evening will transition to areas of IFR/LIFR
fog and stratus late tonight and early Monday. Clouds/fog
expected to dissipate mid-morning with return of VFR Monday
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A better opportunity for VFR is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday. Thursday expect a chance for showers and
thunderstorms as a front nears. Front is expected to stall over
the area Friday...shower/storm chances lingering into the
weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM