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000
FXUS61 KRNK 131020
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move east
across the Gulf Coast region as low pressure tracks through New
England. A cold front approaches the area from the Ohio Valley on
Sunday night and Monday with a low chance of showers. Temperatures
warm for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM EDT Saturday...

Key message:

 -  Wind Advisory in effect

Upper trough remains over the forecast area. Until it exits the
region, the pressure gradient will result in windy conditions
with gusts within 30 to 50 mph range...the highest gusts across
the mountains and just lee of the Blue Ridge.

Low level cloud cover lingers over the mountains this morning
with a few showers. The showers are expected to wane between now
and 8AM with clouds lingering until mid morning before completely
clearing. There is also a standing cirrus wave (upper level)
cloud feature lee of the VA Blue Ridge. Models hold onto this
feature until mid morning before dissipating as well.

In general, expecting a mostly sunny day as a whole but
associated with a gusty winds. The winds are expected to
diminish at sunset...a much quieter night tonight.

Temperatures today will favor the seasonal norm with highs in
the 50s to near 60 mountains and 60s to near 70 for the
foothills and piedmont. Tonight will be clear but cool with
lows in the upper 30s mountains to lower 40s piedmont. Some of
the mountain valleys may dip into the lower 30s resulting in
patchy frost, but nothing anticipated elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Mountain showers Monday

2: Warm temperatures


Late Sunday and into Monday a cold front that is oriented east-west
will sink south into the general vicinity of I-64. This will serve
to enhance westerly winds through Monday. There will also be some
scattered showers  in southeast WV, but precip amounts will be light
and shower coverage will not make it much further west than the
VA/WV state line. Sunday and Monday will be quite blustery with wind
gusts of 20-30 MPH. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and
low 80s east of the Blue Ridge, low to mid 70s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Points:

1. Above normal temperature through the period.
2. Increasing probabilities of precipitation each day with the best
chances on Friday.


A nearly stationary front will remain over the northern portion
of the CWA on Tuesday, leading to some patchy light rain across
northern and western sections of the area. An approaching low
pressure system will track more or less along this front, with
increasing precip chances each day as more moisture advects into
the area. Best chances for precip will be late Wednesday and
into Thursday. Look for better probabilities across the
mountains on Wednesday. On Thursday, the best coverage will
remain across the mountains, but the entire region will see
isolated to scattered shower, and potentially isolated
thunderstorm, coverage on Friday. Isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible on Thursday.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 AM EDT Saturday

Winds remain strong especially in the mountains. Winds are
expected to persist through the day before diminishing at
sunset.

Expect MVFR cloud bases in the mountains until 14Z/10AM
this morning, with VFR east. There is also a stationary wave
cloud (dense upper level cirrus) just lee of the VA Blue Ridge.
By this afternoon evening the western upslope areas will clear
out and return to VFR. The upper level wave cloud is also
expected to dissipate.

Forecast confidence is average.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday, VFR conditions are expected for all locations.

Monday, a weak system may bring a return of some showers and
patchy sub-VFR conditions to Southeast West Virginia. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected.

Mainly VFR through Tuesday and Wednesday with a few
showers/storms possible north of KLWB.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is good.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ009-012>020-
     022>024-032>035.
NC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ001>003-018-
     019.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...DS/VFJ
AVIATION...PM