343
FXUS64 KSHV 101726
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1226 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

As of 10:45 AM this morning, temperatures are approaching the
upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Quiet and seasonable conditions
are expected through the rest of the day with temperature maximums
only reaching the low-to-mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. With
weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast
grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

For the first time in what feels like a long time, I present to
you a shorter discussion containing no weather. Now that this
insanely stubborn front has finally moved out of the region, weak
upper-level ridging will move overhead into the weekend. This will
allow for somewhat drier air to filter into the region, keeping
the clouds and rain at bay. Temperatures will also run seasonal
for this time of the year, with highs ranging in the low to
mid-80s, and lows ranging in the mid-50s to low-60s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Unfortunately, our quiet pattern quickly comes to an end on
Sunday. This will be the first day of a rather active long-term,
with multiple days of heavy thunderstorm activity anticipated into
next weekend. This wet pattern will be associated with multiple
shortwave troughs moving through the central Plains, with only a
day or two break in-between. The heavy rain will likely be the
talking point over the next week, but severe weather is not out of
the question as well. However, there are still a lot of
uncertainties regarding airmass recovery each day given ongoing
rain, currently limiting severe potential. Pivoting back to the
heavy rainfall, current QPF values are widespread 3-6 inches of
rainfall into next weekend, with locally heavier amounts certainly
possible.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

For the 10/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals
throughout, primarily in the form of scattered to broken high
clouds, though some lower VFR cigs are possible with the
development of a small Cu field this afternoon. Northeast winds
will continue at 10 to 15 kts sustained with a few gusts in
breezier areas, before becoming lighter and variable overnight.

/26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  65  78 /   0   0  10  40
MLU  60  82  64  80 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  55  82  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
TXK  59  83  63  79 /   0   0  10  20
ELD  55  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  61  79  64  75 /   0   0  20  50
GGG  62  80  63  75 /   0   0  20  50
LFK  64  82  64  77 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...26