733
FXUS64 KSHV 051100
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
600 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread now in advance of an
upper level disturbance embedded in southwesterly flow aloft
across the Upper Red River Valley of N TX/S OK. Strongest storms
reside along the southern edge of the large mass of precipitation
that is currently impacting our Deep East Texas zones and these
storms reside in some descent sfc based instability along with
descent mid-level lapse rates. Further north, closer to the I-20
Corridor and north, elevated instability is sufficient enough that
we could still see some hail with any elevated cores with descent
lapse rates once again as far north as SE OK. 0-6km Bulk Shear
values are weak such that we should not have to concern ourselves
with supercell thunderstorms but multi-cell hail and/or wind
producers will be possible again, mainly across the southern third
of our region through the morning hours today. Kept the same
trends of categorical pops across the western 2/3rds of our region
today with the back edge of this activity quickly moving from west
to east across our region through the morning hours. Beyond the
Noon hour, we should see a break in the storm coverage across NE
TX into N LA with precip coverage remaining high across our
northern third due to the proximity of upper forcing with the
exiting of the upper trough itself. There will continue to be a
heavy rain/isolated flooding threat as well, mainly near and/or
south of the I-20 Corridor this morning with the key word being
mostly isolated.

Pops come to and end across our northeast zones this evening with
the departure of the disturbance. Weak ridging will prevail in the
wake of the upper trough`s departure overnight but another, much
weaker disturbance will move quickly north and east towards our
region during the day Monday. This will provide the upper forcing
necessary for additional shower and thunderstorm chances during
the day Monday but coverage will not be near like what we have
experienced this morning.

Did not stray too far from NBM temps today through Monday.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

By Monday Night, a vigorous upper level trough will rapidly move
out of the Intermountain West and into the Southern and Central
Plains. This promises to be quite the severe weather producer
from the Upper Red River Valley northward into Central Ok and much
of KS but our far northwest zones will just get clipped by
sufficient forcing for the development of scattered thunderstorms
near but mainly north and west of the I-30 Corridor. Kept pops
out of the forecast for Tue/Tue Night but southwest flow aloft
begins to tighten once again for Wed into Wed Night as an
elongated, longwave trough takes up residence from the
Intermountain West, eastward across the Central Plains and into
the Upper Great Lakes. This pattern is vigorous enough such that a
cold front will begin moving south and east towards the I-30
Corridor Wed Night and towards the I-20 Corridor of NE TX and N
LA during the day Thu into Thu Night. Needless to say, strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible across our far northwest
zones late Wed/Wed Night and areawide Thu/Thu Night until we can
get the cold front south of our region which may not occur until
early Friday.

The NBM has finally caught onto post frontal conditions and a
welcomed drying trend for Fri thru at least Sat with milder post
frontal temperatures as well so did not have to make much in the
way of pop changes for late week into the upcoming weekend.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

SHRA and some embedded TSRA continues to prevail across the
airspace this morning. This trend will continue through much of
the morning and early afternoon before some recovery by the mid to
late afternoon period. Regardless, even after SHRA dissipates
later this morning, BKN/OVC CIGs will continue through the
package. There remains some uncertainty regarding any possible
SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon. CAMs this morning continue
to suggest this closer to 00z, so decided to hold steady with VCSH
for most terminals by this stage of the package. This will be
monitored with the latest trends through the afternoon. By the end
of the package, guidance continues to advertise lowering CIGs once
more, with some possible BR development.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  68  85  73 / 100  20  40  10
MLU  82  67  85  71 /  80  30  30  10
DEQ  74  62  81  67 / 100  20  40  40
TXK  78  66  84  71 / 100  20  40  20
ELD  78  64  83  68 / 100  40  40  10
TYR  78  67  83  72 / 100  20  30  10
GGG  78  66  84  72 / 100  20  40  10
LFK  79  66  85  72 / 100  20  30   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53