382
FXUS64 KSJT 050819
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
319 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Main area of convection exiting the eastern portions of the area
early this morning as the shortwave that helped produce it moves
through the area. Air mass has been worked over pretty well over
the last few days, and although it remains unstable, absence of
upper level support will make it tough to get convective
redevelopment this afternoon. Most likely area to see more storms
redevelop will south along I-10, where CAPE vales this afternoon
will be 3000+ instead of the 1000-2000 farther north across the
Big Country. Latest CAMs show a few showers or storms this
afternoon across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau and will
keep some POPs down there to account for this.

Will cancel the Flash Flood Watch early however, with the main
threat of heavy rain ending with the convection this morning.
However, roadways across the Heartland may remain flooded and
impassable until the floodwater from the rainfall on Saturday
slowly recede.

Wet soils will lead to a little big of fog formation late Sunday
night into Monday morning and have added a mention into the
forecast. Otherwise, mild conditions to end the weekend with highs
in the 70s and 80s today and lows in the 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

There will be a few days in the long term which we will be
monitoring for severe weather potential. Part of the Big Country is
in a marginal risk, with a small part of Throckmorton County in a
slight risk for Monday. Right now, it looks like the higher severe
threat will be to our northeast, but with the moist air mass we`ll
have in place, the high instability, and the decent shear, we can`t
rule out severe weather for Monday afternoon and evening. Wednesday
also has the potential for severe weather, mainly in our eastern
counties, once again due to very high instability. Right now, the
chances for rain and storms look low for our area and better to our
east for Wednesday, but this is something we`ll be watching. There
will be a warming trend into the middle of next week, as an 850 mb
thermal ridge starts to shift over our area and southwest/west winds
bring downsloping, warm air. A cold front is expected to bring below-
normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and 80s) for the Big Country
on Thursday and all of the area for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Area of showers and storms continues across the eastern terminals
early this morning, but should be pushing east over the next
several hours. Some brief clearing may follow, but fog and
IFR/MVFR cigs will quickly redevelop before sunrise and persist
well into the morning hours. Will eventually see VFR skies return
but may take well into the afternoon at most locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     77  65  87  62 /  20  10  10   0
San Angelo  81  66  90  64 /  20  10  10   0
Junction    82  67  88  68 /  30  10  10   0
Brownwood   77  65  84  66 /  20  10  20   0
Sweetwater  77  65  88  61 /  20  10  10   0
Ozona       79  66  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
Brady       77  66  83  68 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07