Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 221726
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog then breezy wind this morning.

- Light snow possible Saturday morning (with no impacts
  expected).

- A strong storm system impacts the region Saturday night
  through Monday morning with wind gusts of 50-60 mph and
  severe thunderstorms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024


Behind a rapidly progressing warm front, fog and low stratus
have developed. Dense fog was common across south central Kansas
this morning. Some of that fog may advect northeastward into
east central Kansas early this morning before the cold front
moves through. Some locations along and south of I-35 could see
patchy dense fog for an hour or two. A cold front, currently
just north of the border in Nebraska, will be completely
through the area by the mid-afternoon with gusty north winds
around 30 mph building in behind. There may be enough lift along
the front to generate some light rain this morning across far
eastern Kansas, but with the best forcing and moisture further
north and east of us, chances remain slim (20-30%) and amounts
minimal (a few hundredths). Sunny skies after the front`s
passage will be offset by strong CAA with temperatures topping
out in the 50s north of Interstate 70 and in the 60s to the
south.

A weak and fast-moving mid-level wave will move across the
central Plains Saturday morning. There may be just enough lift
and moisture available for some light precipitation. With below
freezing temperatures in place Saturday morning, light snow
would be the favored precipitation type. Model soundings
continue to show dry air in the low-levels which will evaporate
some or most of this snow before it even reaches the ground.
Overall, no impacts are expected with nothing more than a
dusting of snow possible.

A deep longwave trough moves into the western CONUS Saturday
into Sunday. A surface low will deepen across eastern Colorado.
A tight pressure gradient sets up across the central Plains as
result. Strong wind with gusts to 60 mph seems likely for most
of the area Sunday. Confidence continues to increase in these
higher wind speeds as the latest NBM has a 75% chance of winds
greater than 50 mph. A High Wind Warning may be needed for
Sunday. Cloud cover may inhibit the best low-level mixing, but
if low-level clouds scatter out ahead of the main trough,
deeper mixing and stronger winds are more likely. As the trough
ejects into the central Plains, chances for thunderstorms
increase. The best chance of more widespread thunderstorms
arrives Sunday evening. The axis of highest instability is still
favored to remain in western and central Kansas, but a few
models suggest a few hundred J/kg of CAPE may be present early
Sunday evening across north central Kansas. Given how dynamic
this system will be there is the potential for a high shear/low
CAPE severe weather scenario, with damaging wind the main threat
for any storms that do become severe. Precipitation on the
backside of the system could change over to snow as temperatures
fall below freezing Monday evening, but probabilities for
greater than a dusting are low (10-20% in north central
Kansas). Another hard freeze is probable if not Tuesday, than
more likely Wednesday morning. A warm-up is favored for the end
of the week with a return to temperatures in the 60s or 70s
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon
although MVFR cigs are spreading south and could impact
terminals for a period this afternoon. A more expansive area of MVFR
stratus is likely to develop this evening and overnight with
guidance varying in location of this cloud deck. Given current
satellite trends, think there is high enough chance that
KTOP/KFOE will be impacted to include in TAF, but have left out
mention at KMHK for now. Winds decrease this evening and
overnight, becoming more easterly after sunrise Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Flanagan


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