Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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692 FXUS64 KTSA 051747 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1247 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A soggy and wet morning continues across much of eastern Oklahoma and west/northwest Arkansas. Latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows the culprit mid-level shortwave trough and its axis just west of the forecast area. As such, widespread light to moderate rainfall, with pockets of heavy to very heavy rainfall, will persist into the afternoon. Rainfall rates 2 to 3 inches/hour will be possible and have been observed with the heavier showers and thunderstorms that occurred earlier this morning. Modest instability over the region will also keep a chance for strong thunderstorms that may produce small hail and gusty winds. As the trough axis advances eastward across the area this afternoon, so will the heavy rainfall/higher rainfall rates, with the heaviest rain shifting east of the forecast area by mid- late afternoon. Until then, flooding and flash flooding will be the main concerns for the day. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area until 7 PM this evening. Overall, the short term forecast remains on track, with only minor adjustments made thus far to the forecast grids. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s in most locations. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Lingering rain across the NW AR zones should end by 06z, leaving the forecast area dry for rest of tonight much of the daytime on Monday, though some model data hints at some elevated shower and storm potential Monday afternoon across SE OK and NW AR, so will keep a low Pop in those areas. Focus turns to storms that develop along the dryline to west later Monday afternoon in conjunction with an upper trough that lifts from the mountain west region into the high plains Monday afternoon and evening. Potential for some significant severe weather will exist with storms that northeast Oklahoma late in the afternoon or more likely Monday evening. Greatest coverage/higher end severe potential continues to favor NE OK and NW AR Monday eve/night. Despite lower storm coverage roughly from I-40 to the south, the environment will remain supportive of a higher end severe threat with any storm that develops. Coverage will diminish late Monday night and Tuesday morning, leaving most much of the area in a lull. However, will keep though low PoPs across the eastern sections of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. An uptick in storm chances will come Wednesday with a cold front that enters the area, with some severe potential in place ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening. The boundary will push through the area by Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area starting Thursday. An upper trough in NW flow aloft will clip the area Friday, and may produce a few showers across NE OK and NW AR, however will leave PoPs out for now. Otherwise, settled conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A bit of a messy aviation forecast through the next 18 to 24 hours. Currently, latest obs around the region show a mixture of MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys, mostly due to light to moderate (and occasionally heavy) rainfall occurring across the region. Thunderstorm activity should wind down by mid-late afternoon, west-to-east, but low cigs will likely hold strong thereafter. Forecast guidance suggests light fog and periodic LIFR ceilings developing by or just after midnight tonight. Brief, patchy dense fog may develop at a couple of sites, but confidence wasn`t high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Both cigs and vsbys should improve after sunrise and into midday Monday, with south/south-southeast winds prevailing. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 59 81 59 / 100 10 30 80 FSM 73 63 83 69 / 100 30 30 70 MLC 73 60 83 66 / 100 10 30 60 BVO 69 56 80 54 / 90 10 40 80 FYV 73 58 81 62 / 100 40 30 80 BYV 70 60 80 64 / 100 50 30 80 MKO 69 60 80 65 / 100 10 30 80 MIO 69 58 80 61 / 100 30 20 90 F10 70 59 80 62 / 100 10 30 80 HHW 72 63 80 68 / 100 10 50 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...67