Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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259 FXUS63 KUNR 051723 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1123 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Windy across the western SD plains today. -Cool, windy, and unsettled for much of this week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 203 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 08Z upper level analysis has shortwave ridge across the Central Plains, with deep upper low across northern California. Skies are mainly clear across the Northern Plains at the moment. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern and Central Plains, with strong low pressure over Idaho. Temperatures at 2am across the forecast area are in the 40s, with southerly winds. Transient upper ridge will quickly shift east today as large upper low shifts into the Great Basin area. Surface low pressure over Idaho will move into western Wyoming today, producing a strong pressure gradient across the Northern Plains. Southerly winds around 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph will develop across the forecast area by mid day, and persist into the evening hours. As the surface low approaches the area, some showers and thunderstorms could develop over northeast Wyoming late in the afternoon, with precip chances shifting into western South Dakota this evening. Widespread severe storms are not anticipated at this time. Upper low crosses the Rockies late tonight into Monday, with more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms expected across northeast Wyoming and far western SD. Rainfall amounts across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and northwest South Dakota will likely be half an inch to an inch on Monday. More scattered showers and storms are expected south and east of the Black Hills. As the strong surface trof shifts through the area, gusty west to northwest winds are expected, which may require another wind advisory across the SD plains. Temperatures should be cool enough Monday night for some light snow accumulations across the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Strong system becomes stacked across western North Dakota by Tuesday, with blustery conditions continuing across the area. Precip chances become lighter and more scattered on Tuesday as the main weather system resides north of the area. Once again, wind highlights will likely be needed on Tuesday, especially across northwestern South Dakota. Upper low and main upper trof finally shifts southeast on Wednesday, dropping back through central SD on its way out of the Northern Plains. Unsettled weather continues with better chances for precipitation across the SD plains. West to northwest winds remain very breezy. Thursday will be slightly warmer with continued chances of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with breezy north winds. Weather will slowly warm up and dry out toward the weekend as the upper low finally exits the region and a ridge of high pressure builds across the western CONUS. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1119 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 South-southeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph will continue this afternoon and evening, strongest across the western SD plains. MVFR to IFR conds will develop tonight as moisture advects north ahead of a low pressure system. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight with more widespread rains across the NW half Monday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-042>044-046-047-049-072-073- 075>078. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15 AVIATION...JC