Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 222344
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
944 AM ChST Sat Feb 23 2019

.Marianas Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows isolated showers
in the Tinian and Saipan waters, and frequent showers in the Guam and
Rota waters, with a band of heavy showers running over Guam. The
radar also shows the eye of Typhoon Wutip to the south-southwest of
the islands. The VAD wind profile indicates east winds of 38 to 44
knots just off the surface which increase to between 54 and 60 knots
through the lowest 7 thousand feet of the air, then turn southeast at
40 to 50 knots through 30 thousand feet. The buoys reveal combined
seas of 13 to 19 feet composed mainly of east wind waves and
southeast swell from the typhoon.

&&

.Discussion...
Typhoon Wutip is the main game in town, even across most of Asia, as
evidenced by Japan selecting it as the feature for the Himawari
target area. The typhoon will remain near the Marianas for the next
day or two. After tonight it`s influence will gradually begin to wane
though. After typhoon Wutip moves far enough away, the Marianas will
gradually return to a much more usual dry season trade-wind regime.
In the meantime, Guam will see bands of heavy showers with occasional
bouts of damaging winds, Rota will see some showers with winds just
below damaging levels, and Tinian and Saipan will see fairly dry
weather with breezy conditions.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas have been whipped to a frenzy by Typhoon Wutip. All
craft other than giant commercial vessels should be in port. Starting
Sunday, winds and seas will gradually diminish. By Wednesday night,
seas should be down to between 6 and 8 feet, compared to the 12 to 18
feet they are at right now.

&&

.Tropical systems...
Typhoon Wutip is currently category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
This is expected to be its peak strength and it will start weakening
tonight. It`s motion is expected to slow and in 5 days it is still
west of the Northern Marianas.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Drier moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will persist across
Pohnpei until midweek, Kosrae and Majuro thru Monday night. Near
midweek, a trade-wind surge will increase low-level convergence
across the region which could heighten the chance for showers.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Modest converging southeasterly winds will continue to trigger
periodic showers and possible thunderstorms near Chuuk today. By
this evening, surface ridging building westward from the east should
bring in fair weather and will last thru most of next week.

Typhoon Wutip located about 390 miles east of Yap Proper is
gradually turning northwestward this morning. Latest ASCAT satellite
imagery reveals a smaller overall wind field surrounding Wutip.
Therefore, mainly moderate to occasionally fresh winds are expected
near Koror thru Sunday night. Winds near Yap Proper should be fresh
to occasionally strong thru Sunday. Dry air intrusion has caused
rain and shower coverage around Wutip to shrink overnight. As Wutip
passes northeast of Yap today and tonight, widely scattered showers
are still possible near Yap but only isolated showers are expected
near Koror. Once Wutip pulls farther northeast of far Western
Micronesia Sunday and Monday, a modest surface trough extending
southwestward from it can still trigger sporadic light to moderate
showers near Koror and Yap. Near midweek, gentle to moderate winds
should introduce more stable weather for both locations.

Large northeast swell generated by Typhoon Wutip will keep dangerous
surf across Western Yap State, and hazardous surf across the
Republic of Palau thru Monday evening. Marine conditions near both
places will also be hazardous for small craft thru Monday night.
Residual west swell produced by Wutip earlier should decline further
today so that surf on Chuuk will drop below hazardous levels later
this afternoon.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Tropical Storm Warning for GUZ001-002.
     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for
     GUZ001>004.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CHST Wednesday for
     GUZ001>004.
     Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for GUZ001-002.
     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CHST Tuesday for GUZ001>004.
     Tropical Storm Watch for GUZ003-004.

Marianas Waters...Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ151-152.
     Tropical Storm Watch for PMZ152>154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM CHST Wednesday for
     PMZ153-154.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 6 AM CHST Monday for PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

Stanko/Middlebrooke/Chan


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