Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
823 FNUS72 KMLB 132107 FWSMLB Spot Forecast for St. Lucie Wildfire...St. Lucie EM National Weather Service Melbourne FL 507 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 EDT on May 13. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Good afternoon. Southeast winds are expected for the rest of this afternoon, with wind speeds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Scattered showers and lightning storms are possible later this afternoon and into this evening as activity from the sea breeze collsion across the interior will get pushed back towards the coast. Shower and storm activity will dissipate or move out of the local area overnight, mainly after midnight. Winds will then veer southward overnight and decrease to around 5-10 mph. South to southwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph once again by mid-morning Tuesday with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Hot conditions are forecast Tuesday, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 90s and heat indicies ranging from 100-105 degrees due to the south to southwest winds and a delayed or prevented sea breeze. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will be possible once again on Tuesday afternoon and into the evening, with any activity disspiating or moving out of the area overnight. Smoke dispersion values will be generally good this afternoon and very good on Tuesday. Wednesday, winds will be from the south to southwest with speeds increasing to 10-15 mph by mid-morning and gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Well above average temperatures once again, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s with heat indices ranging from 100-105 degrees. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated lightning storm will be possible on Wednsday morning, with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms possible Wednsday afternoon and into the early evening. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible in the evening and ovenright. Smoke dispersion values will be very good to excellent on Wednesay. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 89. Min humidity........59 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 16 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 mph. Dispersion index....48. LVORI...............1. TIME (EDT) 5PM Sky (%).........50 Weather cov.....CHC Weather type....RW Tstm cov........CHC Chc of pcpn (%).30 LAL.............3 Temp............86 RH..............65 20 FT wind dir..E 20 FT wind spd..16 20 FT wind gust.22 Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 Transp wind dir.SE Transp wind spd.20 Dispersion idx..48 LVORI...........1 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2300, then 1-8 strikes until 0200, then No Tstms. Min temperature.....Around 74. Max humidity........97 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening and overnight. Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 20 mph. Dispersion index....47 decreasing to 11. LVORI...............1 increasing to 6. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........55 79 84 81 62 53 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 20 0 0 LAL.............3 3 3 2 1 1 Temp............84 80 77 77 76 75 RH..............67 77 87 87 90 94 20 ft wind......SE 15 SE 14 SE 12 SE 10 SE 10 S 9 20 ft wind gust.21 18 16 14 14 Mix hgt (ft)....3000 1400 800 400 500 400 Transport wind..SE 20 SE 18 SE 15 S 13 S 13 S 13 Dispersion idx..47 21 13 11 11 11 LVORI...........1 3 4 5 5 5 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 97. Min humidity........42 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 6800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 17 mph. Dispersion index....13 increasing to 72 late in the morning decreasing to 63. LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........54 45 36 42 46 46 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 Temp............74 77 88 95 97 97 RH..............97 90 61 46 43 43 20 ft wind......S 9 S 12 S 13 S 14 S 14 S 14 20 ft wind gust. 16 17 18 18 18 Mix hgt (ft)....400 1500 3500 5600 6700 6600 Transport wind..S 14 S 16 S 17 SW 17 SW 17 SW 16 Dispersion idx..12 29 59 71 76 72 LVORI...........6 4 1 1 1 1 $$ Forecaster...Watson Requested by...Sonji Hawkins Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2414021.0/MLB .DELDT 05/13/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL HawkinsS@stlucieco.org,guerreror@stlucieco.org,hanceo@stlucieco.org