607
ACUS11 KWNS 041549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041549
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-041745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to central Arkansas and southern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041549Z - 041745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the
late morning and afternoon hours, but an overall limited kinematic
environment should modulate the severe threat. However, a few
instances of severe hail and damaging winds appears possible through
early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 60 minutes, a handful of convective
towers and developing thunderstorms have emerged along a surface
cold front in eastern OK and across the warm sector as a mid-level
impulse propagates across the region. MRMS vertically integrated
ice, cloud top temperatures, and lightning trends all show steady
intensification as these cells mature in an environment
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Much of eastern OK, AR, and
southern MO is in between two synoptic shortwave troughs, which is
resulting in relatively weak mid-level winds. However, the gradual
approach of an open wave from the southwest will slowly increase
mid/upper-level winds through early/mid-afternoon, resulting in
elongation of deep-layer wind profiles with effective shear values
approaching 20-25 knots. This combination of moderate buoyancy and
modest wind fields should allow for some storm organization into
multi-cell clusters with an attendant marginal hail risk (most
likely between 0.5 to 1.0 inch in diameter). Heading into the
afternoon hours, low-level heating of a moist air mass should
support surface-based convection with an increasing potential for
damaging winds. Based on recent radar trends, this threat appears
most likely to materialize across central to north-central AR over
the next 2-4 hours.

..Moore/Smith.. 05/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
OUN...

LAT...LON   35119676 36199475 37199346 37609241 37649167 37399111
            37069084 36429085 35679098 34989127 34519161 34239224
            33709437 33679518 33849582 34149637 34589674 34939682
            35119676