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000
FXUS62 KFFC 140710
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A 500 mb ridge positioned over the Great Plains will translate
eastward towards the Southeast CONUS over the course of the short
term period. Georgia will remain underneath northwesterly upper
level flow ahead of the ridge. As the morning begins, a surface high
pressure will be centered over south Georgia/north Florida, which
and move slowly eastward over the course of the day. As this occurs,
low-level winds will shift to the southwest, which will begin
advection Gulf moisture into the atmospheric column. After the
morning begins with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, the
warming trend will continue as 1000-500 mb heights continue to rise
under the high and ahead of the ridge. High temperatures on this
afternoon are forecast be mainly 6-10 degrees above daily averages,
rising into the low to mid 80s. In spite of the warming
temperatures, dewpoints will also be climbing due to the
aforementioned moisture advection. As a result, relative humidity
values are forecast to stay just above critical fire danger
thresholds this afternoon

A weak shortwave traversing the upper level northwesterly flow will
move over Georgia this afternoon, which will bring scattered mid and
upper level cloud coverage. However, subsidence under the surface
high will inhibit any precipitation chances in association with this
disturbance. Diurnal mixing will lead to wind gusts up to 20-25 mph
this afternoon, with these gusts coming to an end by sunset. With
little change in the synoptic pattern on Monday, the airmass over
the forecast area will continue to warm and moisten. Low
temperatures in the early morning will start off in the mid to upper
50s. Afternoon highs will then climb to 8-12 degrees above daily
averages, mainly in the mid 80s across the area.


King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

At a glance:

    - Ridging supports unseasonably warm and dry conditions through
  midweek

    - Rain chances return Wednesday

Moving into Tuesday, (exiting) surface high pressure and mid-level
ridging will have overspread much of ECONUS. Under the influence of
several days of subsidence -- with effectively zero precipitation
chances until Wednesday afternoon -- expect our highs to soar into
the 80s areawide (as much as 8-12 degrees above average for mid-
April) each day through Friday. Cannot rule out highs near 90
degrees south and east of a line extending from Columbus to Macon to
Athens on both Thursday and Friday. Lows will also be quite warm, in
the upper-50s to 60s.

By Wednesday, a mid-level closed low lifting northward across the
Great Plains will support strong surface cyclogenesis -- with
progged MSLP 2 to 3 sigma below average per GEFS and Euro ensembles.
The movement of the aforementioned low(s) will nudge the axes of our
presiding ridge and surface high the remainder of the way off of the
Eastern Seaboard. Concurrently, an attendant cold front will sweep
across the Deep South, and our rain chances look to return Wednesday
through Thursday. By this time, the parent low will likely be making
its way across Michigan, and "best" frontal dynamics will be far
removed from the forecast area. For now, severe potential appears to
be negligible. Rainfall totals are forecast to be minimal, between a
tenth and a third of an inch, concentrated north of I-20.

Beyond Thursday, flow becomes quasi-zonal at the mid-levels. The
eastward movement of closed low rotating across central Canada will
send a secondary frontal boundary across the Southeast. Expect
another shot of rainfall Friday into Saturday associated with its
passage.


96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Skies will be
mostly clear through the morning, with only some thin cirrus
clouds. A FEW- SCT cloud deck around 060-070 will be possible in
the afternoon hours. Winds will be light and variable to start
the period, becoming SW at 4-8 kts by 14Z this morning. Winds will
increase to SW at 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts by early
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         82  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     77  53  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    82  54  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        83  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     81  59  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           83  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            82  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  83  55  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         84  60  86  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...King