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000
FXPQ50 PGUM 251931
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
531 AM ChST Fri Apr 26 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Over the night the skies have mostly cleared. Winds are light to
gentle. Altimetry shows seas 4 to 6 feet to the near east.

&&

.Discussion...
Fair weather is expected through the weekend and most of next week,
save for Saturday. Both GFS and ECMWF models suggest Saturday
showers might increase. Then right back to the regularly prescribed
dry trade-wind pattern.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Gentle to fresh winds are expected through the next few days. Seas
are expected to fluctuate between 5 and 7 feet. Seas are not expected
to be too interesting over the coming days.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...

Trade convergence will continue to fluctuate across central and
eastern Micronesia through the period. Multiple trade troughs and
surges will also pass through the region. Expect generally scattered
showers and some thunderstorms to continue for most of the period
from Chuuk to Majuro. Showers will be isolated for Kosrae today and
for Pohnpei tonight and Saturday, but the convergence zone will
build back in from the south and east and showers become scattered
again. Showers could be numerous and heavy at times, but timing any
particular heavy shower event past the next couple of days is
difficult.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected for most of the period.
Strong gusts are expected as well through the weekend, especially
for Pohnpei and Kosrae. Combined seas of 6 to 9 feet (up to 10 feet
for Pohnpei and Kosrae through Saturday night). A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for Kosrae through tomorrow afternoon and
for Pohnpei through tomorrow night. Debated issuing for Chuuk, but
winds and seas look to remain below criteria for now. Seas should
lower a few feet for Majuro over the weekend as the trade swell
pushes west, then next week for Kosrae, Pohnpei and then Chuuk.
A High Surf Advisory for east reefs of Kosrae begins later today as
the trade swell increases and continues through tomorrow night.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...

Generally isolated trade showers are expected for Yap. Showers could
become scattered at times over the weekend as a trade trough/surges
pushes through. Showers will be more scattered for Palau, with a
potential for some thunderstorms, as multiple troughs/surges push
into the republic over the coming days. Showers could become numerous
and heavy at times today for Palau as convergence is enhanced with a
disturbance passing south. In addition, a near-equatorial trough
could develop near to south of Palau early next week, helping to keep
the convection potential elevated for Palau, but unlikely to bring
much of an increase for Yap.

Moderate to fresh winds and combined seas of 3 to 6 feet Palau and 4
to 7 feet Yap are expected to continue through the weekend. Some
strong gusts possible for Yap as well. Winds and seas look to
decrease next week as the trade flow diminishes as the NET develops
and creeps north.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Bowsher
Micronesia: Slagle