529
FXUS64 KOUN 051517
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1017 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Forecast was updated to keep rain lingering a bit longer east of
I-35 until early afternoon. A MCV signature east of Guthrie is
likely providing sufficient lift to have the light rain drift
eastward more slowly than previously expected. Nevertheless,
amounts are expected to be lower than one-tenth inch per hour.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across central and
eastern Oklahoma this morning/early afternoon. As this occurs,
most of the heavy rainfall and storms will end west of Interstate
35 during the early morning. Rainfall rates with the heavier
storms through the morning are expected to average around 1 to
1.5 inches, which will result in minor flooding and/or ponding of
water on roads. With the rain moving east this morning, western
parts of a Flood Watch will be cancelled by 12Z (perhaps I-35 and
west).

Despite the thunderstorm complex over Oklahoma and a larger one
across central and eastern Texas, rich Gulf moisture will remain
close to our south. Heating this afternoon should result in weak
instability, but rather weak boundary layer flow will limit shower
or thunderstorm development. The exception may be central and south
central Oklahoma where a deeper moisture profile is expected.
Brief shortwave ridging will spread across the southern Plains this
evening and overnight, in advance of a strong trough moving through
the inter-Mountain West.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Models are in general agreement with lifting a strong trough across
western parts of the central and northern Plains on Monday. Although
the trough will lift well to our north, decent height falls, and
the exit region of a strong upper jet will overspread roughly the
northern half of Oklahoma Monday afternoon/evening.

Unsure how many storms will develop along a dryline, but it seems
apparent that some will.  Instability, 3000+ J/kg, and NAM
hodographs support the risk of tornadoes, some of which may be
strong. Very large hail and damaging winds will also be possible.
Supercells that can develop are expected to move northeast around 35
to 40 mph, and will likely persist well into the evening hours.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front
that is expected to move into northern and western Oklahoma late
Monday. A capping inversion and drier air across parts of western
Oklahoma and western northern Texas, may limit development on the
front.

Northwest to west winds will advect drier air into the southern
Plains overnight Monday into Tuesday. This is expected to result
in dry weather Tuesday. A stronger cold front is expected to move
across Oklahoma and western north Texas on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front in
south central and southeastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon.
Rather high instability and decent shear will support the risk of
large hail and damaging winds.

After the front on Wednesday, mainly dry weather is expected across
most of Oklahoma and western north Texas through at least Friday.
The exception may be far southeast Oklahoma Thursday.  Another
system may move close enough to the southern Plains to increase rain
chances late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mostly rain with a few embedded storms possible will be affecting
our terminals across all of central through southeast Oklahoma
through 17Z which could reduce those terminals to IFR for short
periods. Although our terminals across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas are dry, very low stratus may reduce those
terminals to IFR conditions as well through 18Z. After 18Z,
expecting stratus to lift a bit improving terminals to MVFR
conditions and could see a few hours of VFR conditions by 21Z
before returning back to MVFR conditions after 01Z. As far as
surface winds, high surface pressure across the Central Plains
settling into the Midwest Region will be veering winds
northeasterly up to 10 kts then veering more southerly after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  60  79  60 /  70  10  50  30
Hobart OK         74  60  83  53 /  10  10  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  63  83  60 /  10   0  30  10
Gage OK           73  57  86  51 /  10  10  30   0
Ponca City OK     69  60  79  57 /  80  10  70  60
Durant OK         74  63  81  69 /  70  10  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09