Text Products for FWS Issued by AKQ

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FNUS71 KAKQ 230913
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Plum Creek...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
513 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure builds over the area this morning, then slides off
the coast by this evening. Becoming mainly clear with the morning
inversion breaking between 9-10 am. Min RH values drop to the
upper 20s to around 30% this afternoon. Winds will be light to
start out of the S-SW, but will increase this afternoon averaging
8-10 mph, with gusts to 18 to 20 mph.

A cold front swings through the region on Wednesday, bringing
some scattered rain showers or sprinkles. High pressure/dry
conditions return for Thursday and Friday, with warmer conditions
ahead for the upcoming weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Patchy frost early in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph increasing to 14 to 16 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (64200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 85 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   3   2   4   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0
Temp............65  66  66  66  66
RH..............34  32  32  30  32
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   9   9
20 FT wind gust.11  13  14  14  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.9 6.2 5.7 5.2 4.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   9   12  14  16
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............49  63  76  85  81
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..38  49  59  64  60
Ventrate Cat....PR  FR  FR  GD  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................55 early in the evening decreasing to 7 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   9   5   12  25  40  35  28  31  37  54  72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  60  55  54  52  51  51  51  52  52  52  52
RH..............37  44  57  59  66  71  74  77  77  77  77  77
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   8   8   8   9   9   9   10  9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  14  14  14  15  15  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  13  10  10  12  13  13  13  13  12  12  10
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............55  8   7   7   8   8   9   9   8   8   10  9
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..39  14  4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers early in the morning. Slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    west 10 to 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph increasing to west 20 to
                    25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (80500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (105300
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 early in the morning increasing to 113 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........83     85     74     51     33     29
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     20     20     20
Temp............53     57     63     66     69     69
RH..............77     72     60     52     42     40
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 9   W 10   W 11   W 12   W 10
20 ft wind gust.14     14     15     19     20     18
Mix hgt (ft)....600    700    2600   4900   6900   6700
Transport wind..SW 9   SW 9   W 20   W 25   W 24   NW 22
LVORI...........4      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.............8      7      57     105    113    103
Haines index....4      3      3      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5      6      43     109    143    128
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

$$
Forecaster...MONTEFUSCO
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411899.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
