164
FNUS73 KAPX 101500
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for North Fork...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1100 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1700 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected this
afternoon. A sprinkle or isolated shower can`t be ruled out.
A light west breeze develops this afternoon, becoming southwest
this evening. Humidity levels will bottom out in the mid 30s
percent this afternoon. Showers are likely later tonight into
Saturday morning, possibly even lingering into the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........35 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds around 6 mph.
Transport winds.....West around 12 mph.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (833.0).

TIME (EDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........46
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............63
RH..............35
20 ft wind dir..W
20 ft wind spd..7
20 ft wind gust.13
Mix hgt (kft)...7.2
Haines index....4
Transp wind dir.W
Transp wind spd.12
Vrate kt-ft.....833
Ventrate Cat....EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening. Rain showers
                    likely overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 13 mph shifting to the southwest 6 to
                    8 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......6000-6800 ft AGL decreasing to 500-900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (761.0) decreasing to poor to fair
                    (21.0-259.0) early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........43  40  37  48  60  71  71  72  72  72  72  73
Weather cov.....SCH SCH                         LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW                          RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  60  59  56  53  49  49  48  47  46  45  42
RH..............39  41  42  51  59  74  74  77  83  86  89  100
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  8   8   8   10  10  10  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...6.8 6.0 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S   SW  W   SW
Transp wind spd.13  13  10  8   6   6   5   6   8   8   7   6
Vrate kt-ft.....864 761 259 106 44  33  21  27  40  53  59  45
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely early in the morning, then chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........48 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming north 5 to 8 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the north 7 to 15
                    mph early in the morning, then increasing to 17
                    to 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900-2500 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3300 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (60.0-492.0) increasing to good
                    (565.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........73     74     74     75     75     74
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
Temp............42     43     48     51     55     57
RH..............100    100    79     65     52     48
20 ft wind dir..SW     SW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 ft wind spd..3      3      7      10     10     10
20 ft wind gust.10     10     12     16     16     17
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1200   1800   2100   2900   3300
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Transport wind..W 7    NW 7   N 10   N 13   N 14   N 17
Vrate kt-ft.....61     80     184    265    405    565
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...AJS
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413697.0/APX
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov