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000
FXUS65 KABQ 230910
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Dry and seasonably warm weather prevails across most of central and
northern NM the next couple of days. Strong southwest to west winds
and critical fire weather conditions are expected areawide on
Thursday afternoon. A few light rain/snow showers are possible
across the northwest, but it will be a mostly dry storm system.
Gusty winds stick around Friday into the weekend, allowing fire
weather concerns to continue in at least eastern NM. Cooler
temperatures and scattered showers will favor the northern portion
of the forecast area this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Shortwave ridge will crest over the Desert Southwest today, bringing
the warmest temperatures so far this year for several locales --
some of which will flirt with record highs. Meanwhile, a gusty
backdoor front kicked down from a potent upper low touring eastern
CAN will nose its way into northeastern NM this morning. The fropa
will surge southward and westward through the afternoon, making its
way to the I-40 corridor around midday. Relatively weak, it won`t do
much to thwart today`s heat, with only the area`s most northeastern
locales seeing much in the way of cooling. The front will attempt to
seep through the canyon gaps, but will result in a gentle turning of
wind directions in the central valley rather than a proper gap wind.
A few showers will be possible in the late afternoon and evening in
and around Raton Pass but little appreciable rainfall is expected.
Overnight temperatures will be well above average for late April.
Low clouds will fall in behind the front Tuesday night across
eastern New Mexico, burning off by Wednesday afternoon. Breezy to
locally windy south and southwest winds will prevail Wednesday
afternoon as the ridge begins to break down ahead of an incoming
upper low, particularly across the northeast highlands. Wednesday`s
highs will be a degree to a few degrees cooler than Tuesday`s
readings thanks in part to the backdoor front and cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Winds will quickly pick-up Thursday morning out ahead of a fast
moving trough ejecting inland into the desert southwest. Guidance is
in relatively good agreement that a corridor of 50-70kt winds at
500mb will extend from the lower RGV northeastward into the
northeast plains where gusts to 60 mph are possible with peak
afternoon mixing. The warm and dry weather has significantly reduced
soil moisture as of late so lofted dust will make it quite hazy
across the region Thursday afternoon. Significant visibility
reductions from blowing dust will be confined locations just
east/northeast of dust source regions. Breezy west winds continue
Friday behind a mostly dry Pacific front, with a few stronger gusts
in the typical windy areas just east of the central mountain chain.

The next storm system will begin taking shape over The Great Basin
late Friday into Saturday. Ensemble mean 500mb heights show a broad
troughing signal over the entire western CONUS with negative
anomalies maximized over the Four Corners region. The depth of this
trough will ultimately determine whether or not we get more wind or
precipitation from this system. It looks increasingly likely that at
least the northern third of the forecast area will see cooler temps
and some scattered precipitation over the weekend. The base of the
trough will likely make it more of a wind event for the southern
portion of the area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. A few
terminals may see breezy sly and swly winds overnight. A cold
front will surge down the ern plains in the morning, causing a
shift to nly and nely winds. The fropa is expected to enter nern
NM aft 23/14Z, arriving at KTCC btwn 23/16Z and 23/18Z. Gusty sly
and swly will prevail in the aftn all areas, save for those in the
path of the fropa. Winds will diminish aft sunset most areas, with
portions of the ern plains remaining gusty.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY...

Ridge of high pressure will prevail today, with locally breezy
conditions meeting very low relative humidity. Winds will strengthen
on Wednesday as the ridge begins to breakdown, creating locally
critical fire weather conditions across the northeast highlands.
Thursday will have the potential for high fire danger as southwest
winds strengthen amongst critically dry conditions. Single digit RH
will be possible in the afternoon, with some timber areas in the
lower Rio Grande Valley seeing durations longer than 6 hours. This
combined with gusty southwest winds and high instability will create
widespread critical fire weather conditions for much of northern and
central New Mexico. As such, did issue a Fire Weather Watch for
Thursday late morning through the evening. Critical fire weather
conditions will likely return on Friday, shifting to favor the
highlands of the central mountains and their adjacent plains in
eastern New Mexico. Elsewhere will see some relief from the moisture
brought in by the Pacific front. Winds will remain elevated on
Saturday as another trough makes its way across the Desert
Southwest. Better moisture accompanies this front, however, limiting
the critical fire weather potential. The system will exit on Sunday,
with gusty winds being left in its wake and the possibility for
critical fire weather conditions to crop up across the central
highlands and their adjacent plains. A regime of zonal flow aloft
takes hold on Monday. Winds will relax, but low double to single
digit humidity will continue across most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  81  44  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  77  37  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  77  40  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  78  35  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  74  40  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  79  37  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  77  39  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  76  42  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  79  37  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  82  50  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  72  35  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  75  48  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  76  40  74  46 /   0   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  70  42  69  45 /   0   5   0   0
Red River.......................  66  34  66  35 /  10   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  68  30  67  33 /  10   5   0   0
Taos............................  76  37  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  74  37  72  43 /   5  10   0   0
Espanola........................  83  46  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  77  46  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  80  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  83  53  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  48  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  86  49  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  86  49  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  82  50  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  84  50  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  46  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  78  46  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  78  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  39  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  76  41  73  45 /   0   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  78  44  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  78  42  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  81  52  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  48  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  68  39  71  43 /  10   5   0   0
Raton...........................  75  37  76  40 /  10  10   0   0
Springer........................  79  40  77  42 /  10  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  77  41  73  46 /   5   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  72  43  71  49 /   5   5   5   0
Roy.............................  78  44  73  49 /  10  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  86  48  80  54 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  84  46  79  54 /   0   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  86  47  77  52 /   5   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  88  49  79  54 /   5   5   0   0
Portales........................  89  49  81  54 /   5   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  89  48  81  53 /   0   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  53  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  83  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for NMZ104-106-109-121-123>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12